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Going forward in more ways than one - A look at the stats


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#1 Dublin_Kopite

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

I think every Liverpool supporter can't help but feel impressed by our creativity and general attacking play this season, even though we may have leaked to many soft goals. Everyone knows by now that i'm 100% behind Rodgers and genuinely excited about the direction and brand of football we are starting to develop. I have wanted to take a look at the stats for a while now and see if the feel good factor I sense while watching the games actually shows up clearly in a trend that can be viewed and analysed. 

 

 

Creating Chances to Score:

Believe it or not, Liverpool have created more chances in the season so far than any other European team (LFC have created 402 chances which is 77 more than Man United, 84 more than Chelsea and a mere 121 more than Barcelona (although they have played 2 games less). Even more impressive is the balance of players and positions who are creating these chances:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So that's two full backs, two wingers, our creative midfield player and our creative frontman playing off a goal poacher. Even looking at the percentage of chances created per position shows we are really stretching teams all over and causing them major problems trying to defend it. In recent years, we have made sure our two banks of 4 were solid and always in position to defend which left the majority of the creativeness through the front two players, ie. your Gerrards, Torres, Suarez. This means your depending on these talisman not to have an off day or the opposition keeping them quiet. Now even if one of our world class players have an off day, the brand of football we are playing will still create many chances where as before we might have struggled.

 

 

 

Being Clinical in Front of Goal:

Creating chances is one thing but to be a top side and to compete with the big boys we need to be more clinical in front of goal. The first half of the season really let us down having only one regonised striker at the club, Surez who's shot accuracy stats isn't good enough to carry a team on his own. Things have started to improve with the acquisition of Sturridge but all our attacking players need to either step up a level of accuracy or source players that can. 

 

Below is a look at the shooting accuracy of our more attacking players:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Compared to our chance creating stats we fair pretty poorly with only Sturridge slightly over 50% accuracy(some of them are based on games before he signed for us) in the team. A special note for Downing's poor showing not only for his dismal 27% accuracy but the fact one of his shots was so far off range that it barely sneaks into the top left caption. If our coaching staff can get another 10% improvement out of most of our attacking players we will have one of the most impressive attacking sides in the country.

 

 

 

Report Card - How we compare with the rest:

 

​Overall i was pleasantly surprised how we compared against the top teams in the country on most stats(I know games are not won on stats but it's a good indication of progession). One of the most damning statistic (apart from conceeding goals which I may concentrate on in a follow up at the end of the season) was shooting accuracy as already mentioned. When your creating more chances than everyone else but have a worse accuracy percentage compared to most, then your undoing most of the good work. Below is a report card style comparison of us versus the top 5 teams in the country.

 

 

 

The stand out weakness in comparison are: Shooting Accuracy, Goals conceded, Goals scored from set peices and the amount of 50-50 tackles and defensive blocks and tackles we put in. 

 

The stand out Strengths: Obviously matching the league leaders for possession  passing accuracy and beating them in chances created is a definite sign of progress.

 

 

 

 

 

The stand out weakness in comparison are: Shooting Accuracy again, Goals conceded. Only narrowly behind in goals scored from set peices and defensive blocks and tackles we put in. 

 

The stand out Strengths: Matching the current champions for possession  passing accuracy and beating them in chances created, goals scored is a definite sign of progress.

 

 

 

 

 

The stand out weakness in comparison are: Shooting Accuracy again, Goals conceded and  goals scored from set peices. 

 

The stand out Strengths: Passing accuracy, chances created, goals scored. Pretty much neck and neck overall

 

 

 

 

 

The stand out weakness in comparison are: The only two are Shooting Accuracy yet again and defensive tackles/blocks.

 

The stand out Strengths: Pretty much match or beat spurs for all statistics which is promising.

 

 

 

 

 

The stand out weakness in comparison are: Shooting Accuracy again and again, defensive tackles/blocks and 50-50 challenges which surprised me from an Arsenal point of view.

 

The stand out Strengths: Pretty much match even on all creative and attacking statistics.

 

 

 

Again as well all know there is big defensive frailties within our team. I'm not suggesting that we are going to out score our opponents every week but in my opinion it's harder to instill the creative believe and genuine attacking potential we are currently showing than trying to shore up our defensive leaks.

 

I'm also not suggesting that we are now a top four club and going to have a title run next year. What i'm merely showing that there has been alot of progress made in such a short space of time. All we can ask of the players and manager is to show is some progress every year and in return we should remain positive and upbeat about the direction we are going.

 

 

We may not be Barca but i'm truly enjoying watching Liverpool FC play every week which I honestly can't say I have felt over the last number of years. 

 

So in summary i think thereis alot more to be positive about than to complain about. Those who are still not convinced by Rodgers should enjoy the football that is being served up and maybe give him another season to win you over.

 

One famous philosophers quote really sum's up what i'm trying to get across:

 

"This is a message for possibly the best supporters in the world.

We need a 12th man.

Where are you? 

Come on, let’s be ‘aving you” 

Delia Smith

 

 

 

 



#2 SoueysTash

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:18 PM

squawka is good isn't it!



#3 Dublin_Kopite

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:29 PM

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that all stats used were from

 

 



#4 Hope in your heart

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:47 PM

Superb!



#5 Dane

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:52 PM

Copy and paste king has a rival.

 

All very impressive, but progression and whether a manager (and team) is deemed a success or failure, is as always based on results.



#6 SoueysTash

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:59 PM

sorry I should add I'll read this later...I know work is meant for tactical analysis of my football team but I got things to do



#7 Dublin_Kopite

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 03:59 PM

More like Snipping Tool King...

 

I agree that progression will in the end be deemed successful or not based on results but sometimes it's good to look at a number of stats for reference instead of the yo-yo syndrome we see after a win and then after a loss.



#8 Hope in your heart

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 04:01 PM

(...)

 

I agree that progression will in the end be deemed successful or not based on results but sometimes it's good to look at a number of stats for reference instead of the yo-yo syndrome we see after a win and then after a loss.

 

 

Did you update your other thread already, mate? (comparison with the previous gaffers) Would be interesting to see where we are now...



#9 grooveshark

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 04:13 PM

The thing i dont like about stats is that they are selective. A shot at goal will effectively count as a chance and in that regard reality is that this team collectively takes way too many shots and only of late has there been an uptick in what you could call clear cut chances.

I personally find it better looking at games and seeing how the team performs against certain tactics. And to that end, draw a conclusion.

#10 Dane

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 04:50 PM

More like Snipping Tool King...

 

I agree that progression will in the end be deemed successful or not based on results but sometimes it's good to look at a number of stats for reference instead of the yo-yo syndrome we see after a win and then after a loss.

 

 

Shhh.

Dont tell the other fella about Snipping Tool.

The server would crash if he started using that.



#11 Dublin_Kopite

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 05:12 PM

Did you update your other thread already, mate? (comparison with the previous gaffers) Would be interesting to see where we are now...

 

I did after the last game..

 

http://forums.thisis...inions/?p=89902

 

Rodgers team is 2 points ahead of Rafa and 1 point ahead of Kenny currently with 9 games to go..



#12 Hope in your heart

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 05:37 PM

I did after the last game..

 

http://forums.thisis...inions/?p=89902

 

Rodgers team is 2 points ahead of Rafa and 1 point ahead of Kenny currently with 9 games to go..

 

 

Interesting indeed. Looking at this, Houillier had a hell of a good start with us, while Rafa's mitigated first season has obviously to be put in relation with our great CL run that year.

 

As for Kenny, I take it that he had already started his fatal 2011-12 season. I wonder how many shots had already landed on the woodwork at that point...  :(



#13 craig bellamy's golf club

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 06:44 PM

Very interesting and good to see it going the right way but, in the end, there has been no Wembley finals or silverware this season.

 

In the end, it can be that simple.

 

By the way, is it right that we now need to finish at least in 5th position to get European football next season?



#14 EdWood

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 07:00 PM

Very interesting and good to see it going the right way but, in the end, there has been no Wembley finals or silverware this season.

 

In the end, it can be that simple.

 

By the way, is it right that we now need to finish at least in 5th position to get European football next season?

 

Yes. FA Cup winners, League Cup winners and Fair Play League winners all get a shout which leaves just 5th position finishers for the final slot.



#15 Anfield rd Dreamer

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 07:03 PM

Yes. FA Cup winners, League Cup winners and Fair Play League winners all get a shout which leaves just 5th position finishers for the final slot.


We are second on fair play (Arsenal first) only top three leagues get a speck though and in December we were the fourth cleanest league so we may not get in that way.

#16 costared

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 07:28 PM

Surely with one of the CL teams in the FA cup final 5th and 6th will qualify with the other FA cup finalist and the League cup winners.

Sadly this means a mid table Championship side will qualify. Stupid system.



#17 Anfield rd Dreamer

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 07:39 PM

Surely with one of the CL teams in the FA cup final 5th and 6th will qualify with the other FA cup finalist and the League cup winners.
Sadly this means a mid table Championship side will qualify. Stupid system.


You can get a Europa League place for making the FA cup final and losing to a Champions or Europa League placed side. You only get Europa League place for winning the League cup you can't get it for losing no matter the opponent. Only 5th gets Europa League. Wigan, Blackburn or Millwall will get the next best spot. Swansea get the worst spot. Well unless England pick up one of the fair play places that go to the three cleanest leagues. Going through that way though you start playing at end of June.

#18 cardiffpete

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 10:42 PM

By the way, is it right that we now need to finish at least in 5th position to get European football next season?

There are a couple of (somewhat unlikely) scenarios that could allow 6th to still get into Europe.

 

1) If Chelsea win the FA Cup and also finish 5th, then that actually opens up an extra spot for the 6th-placed team.

 

2) Fair Play League spot. England is currently 4th in this league (as of Dec 31st, and UEFA publishes only 2 rankings - one provisional one on Dec 31st and one final one at season's end) and all countries above us are no longer in Europe - so it now entirely depends on how the English teams conduct themselves on the pitch this half year in Europe. Reds, yellows, respect to the Ref, positive play etc. Numerous criteria involved. England was 4th on Dec 31st, although by a tiny margin. The ManU CL exit could be a problem though, with a Red for Nani, no real respect for the Ref and the boycotting of the after-match press conference by SAF. Wait and see this one ...although a spot through the fair-play-qualifier-way means the European campaign would already begin on July the 4th.

 

@ Dublin_Kopite,

Coincidence (or not), but I also spent a good haf-hour yesterday browsing the Squawka site looking up LFC's stats. There is a marked improvement from Dec 1 i.e. matchday 15. Coincidentally (or again not), that was the game that Lucas returned to the team.

 

In the first 14 games -  we won 3, drew 7 and lost 4 while gaining just 16 points (12th place) and both scored and conceded 18 goals with a shooting accuracy of 37% and a total of 175 chances created.

 

During the last 15 games, we have now won 9, drawn 2 (and should have won both) and lost 4 gaining 29 points (now 6th place, although virtuallly 3rd over these 15 games) . We also scored 38 times and conceeded 18 goals, with a shooting accuracy of 44% and  and creating 227 chances. 

 

The other stats from squawka i.e. possession %, pass-accuracy, defensive actions, yellows-and-reds, duels won all remain semi-identical though (over both periods). Matches 15~29 (apart from Lucas back) does also cover Hendo in the team far more often, Gerrard exclusively deployed deeper at CM and both Sturridge and Coutinho arriving , plus Enrique now our regular LB and Downing achieving a long-run in the team ...plus BR mixing it up a bit, by going more direct in many matches and also playing less (raw) youth players. Lots of factors thus.

 

As to the goals we conceed (all 36 of them in the EPL). It's pretty bizarre really that all-of 50% (i.e. a whopping 18 goals) of our goals-conceded  have come at the low-left-of-the-goal position. High-on-the-goal goals are small throughout the EPL, but no other team has one specific area of the goal  (in the 6 areas of low-left, low-center, low-right and high-left, high-center and high-right) where upwards of 50% are scored at ...bar maybe Arsenal with 42% of their goals conceded at low-right. My question would therefore be: Just why have we conceded 18 goals in the low-left corner of the goal? And can we please rectify that in training?

 

The other anomaly would be us scoring 9 set-piece goals in matches 15~29, as opposed to just 4 in matches 1~14. Probably partly explained by the fact that Suarez got literally nothing early-on (from a Ref and media bias), but has been gradually getting a few calls lately. 

 

Also Gerrard's 8 goals and assists (although not chances created) have sky-rocketed with Lucas back-in. 7 of his goals (and also above 50% of his assists) have happened post Dec 1st. His shot-accuracy is now 52% as opposed to 41%, his defensive errors are now non-existent and his general stats are far higher. Again adding better quality up-top has probably also helped here though, as has BR semi-abandoning his principles of ball-control and possession as the be-all-and-end-all and just going with a more hybrid (and far more direct approach). 

 

Love squawka (plus eplindex and Opta and four-four-two stats zone) to break the numbers down ...but most of it confirms what we already know (or else suspect). We were very lightweight in attack early-season and also light in CM. Both areas have been partially re-dressed, although we probably need some further strenghtening. Most of the Top 4~6 sides have still got much better striking options and do mostly have more proven goal-scorers and have more goals from midfield too. It's not any real surprise that we are much lower at chance-conversion than the Top teams (and even the likes of WBA and Swansea). The very pleasing aspect (for me) is that (just as under Kenny), we mostly try to dominate games, we mostly create loads of chances and we mostly try to play an attractive and attacking game and try to impose ourselves.

 

Not a bad effort from BR though (and from the team), all things considered,  firstly in having out-scored all but 2 LFC sides in the EPL era (at this stage) and also having notched some significant progression -while also giving youth a chance and in (generally) always looking to play positively and in the right manner.



#19 Dane

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 10:56 PM

All this talk of the fair play league smacks a bit of desperation.

Can we no apply to play in the Inter Toto Cup instead?



#20 SoueysTash

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 11:06 PM

All this talk of the fair play league smacks a bit of desperation.
Can we no apply to play in the Inter Toto Cup instead?


Think missing out on Europe would be both a blessing. Still don't think our squad has enough depth to compete in Europe and the fa cup. BR will be under pressure to deliver in the league next season

#21 Anfield rd Dreamer

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 11:58 PM

All this talk of the fair play league smacks a bit of desperation.
Can we no apply to play in the Inter Toto Cup instead?


lol had forgotten bout that. But its stopped now lol

#22 lfc.eddie

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 02:49 AM

Firstly great piece by Cardifpete, it gives a better perspective in how and why we have been playing better in the last 15 compared to the first. Gerrard do not have to focus on defensive duties as much, Suarez is hitting high form, Downing is hitting form, taking out the players that supposedly fit the system and using a more direct approach, the arrival of 2 new forward signing which was occupied by our youth debutante. 

 

Lesson to be learned is, buy what you need and not what you want. We needed forward reinforcement since last season winter window, but in our last summer window we opted to buy other type of players - midfield. Now that we know that is quite sorted, let's move to see why and what we need in our defence.

 

Think missing out on Europe would be both a blessing. Still don't think our squad has enough depth to compete in Europe and the fa cup. BR will be under pressure to deliver in the league next season

 

I think Europa League qualification is a good thing rather than a bad one. If we can't handle Europa League, or the squad is not prepared for it next season, we might have a rude awakening come the season we finally get back into Champs League. The quality of teams between the two competition is really big, but Europa would give us the mental and understanding on how to apply ourselves in European competition.

 

If Rodgers can't handle the pressure of trying to get into and compete in every competition next season, he will never be ready to compete in Champs League. I do expect us to make our presence felt in cup competitions come next season if we do miss out on Europa League.



#23 liverpool_singh

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 08:22 AM

Isn't there a rule anyway that if Suarez plays in your team you can't win the fair play award? 



#24 LeoT

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 12:28 PM

Think missing out on Europe would be both a blessing. Still don't think our squad has enough depth to compete in Europe and the fa cup. BR will be under pressure to deliver in the league next season

 

I think missing out on Europa would be a massive blow for the club's development.

 

Developing Players like Kelley, Shelvey, Stirling, Suso, Wisdom, Coates will be left with starting only a few FA & League cup matches, thats not quite enough games to justify them staying at the club.

I would expect at least half of those players to go out on loan, probably to Championship sides or Prem sides in which they won't play every week anyway.

 

If we get European football those players will probably start 10-15 additional games, and feel happy to start 1-2 first team games per month.

 

We needed all of those players this season when we had short term injuries.

Next season I would rather have Wisdom and Kelley at the club where we can call on them if Enrique or Johnson  gets injured,

Otherwise we start saying "Lets move Johnson left and then play Hendo as Right-back", or "Lets play Downing as a left-back", and then conceed a bunch of silly goals.



#25 Quagmire81

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 01:20 PM

Fair Play is a bunch of horse crap anyway.

Examble, One player get a booking from kicking the ball away, This other player gets away with kicking down another player, and in the end the player whom dealed pain wins the fair play award, what complete BS.