BREXIT - Good idea or not?

Discussion in 'Away End - General Chat' started by Hope in your heart, Jan 27, 2016.

?

Brexit - good idea?

Poll closed Jun 24, 2016.
  1. Yes (UK inhabitant)

    27.9%
  2. No (UK inhabitant)

    27.9%
  3. Yes (EU inhabitant, outside UK)

    3.6%
  4. No (EU inhabitant, outside UK)

    20.7%
  5. Yes (outside UK and EU)

    3.6%
  6. No (outside UK and EU)

    8.1%
  7. Don't know (UK inhabitant)

    3.6%
  8. Don't know (outside of UK)

    4.5%
  1. Hope in your heart

    Hope in your heart Loyalty and patience, two undervalued concepts... Admin

    Messages:
    19,696
    Likes Received:
    13,132
    I thought it would be good to discuss this matter, as the referendum is nearing, with June or July this year seen as the most likely period for it to take place.

    Recent polls indicate that the 'yes' is ahead for the time being (around 53%), driven by fears in relation to the most recent refugees wave, so it's not out of the question that the EU will have to do without the UK in the near future.

    So, five or six months ahead of this crucial vote, what are your feelings?
    • UK inhabitants, how do you think the UK will do outside of Europe? What will the consequences be and would it be a good thing for your country (more independence) or an economical disaster, as many economists point out these days (for instance the likely loss of London as financial center of the EU)?
    • Foreigners inside the EU, do you think the EU can cope without one of it's founding members? No doubt, with the EU accepting a lot of new members lately, the influence of Germany and France will become even more important, and a shift towards Eastern Europe could happen, with Poland and the Czech Republic gaining more influence possibly? Or will it change nothing?
    • Foreigners outside the EU, do you care about it at all? Would UK's influence in the world increase as a result (ie. reinforcing links with the Commonwealth states), or would it be reduced?
    Please vote according to your status, as it will make this little poll a bit more meaningful, and explain the reasons of your vote. Cheers!
     
  2. Kanonkop

    Kanonkop Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,714
    Likes Received:
    7,850
    I think a vote to exit is best...but then again I also think that the EU is a bloated, dysfunctional, expensive, self-serving institution.

    The thing that needs to be remembered is that a Brexit doesn't mean that all ties to Europe are severed with no more free trade etc. rather it probably means a relationship along the lines of the EFTA countries: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein - i.e free trade agreements either via the EEA agreement or bilateral agreements (Switzerland).

    Those countries have significant freedom from the bulk of EU laws though whilst still being able to trade freely. They also have freedom from having to fund EU policies

    So in essence, the Brexit vote isn't about an exit from Europe per se, it is about removing the UK from the bulk of control from Brussels and the European Union. In some ways, winding the clock back to the organisation that the UK joined in the first place.

    I do hope that the referendum is carried out in a constructive and educational manner so that all voters can make a decision on facts rather than hyperbole and vested interests.

    I also suspect that should the vote be for an exit there will soon be a new referendum on entirely better terms as Brexit really would be bad news for the future of the EU as a whole and I doubt Merkel, Hollande, Juncker etc want that to happen.
     
    Hope in your heart likes this.
  3. Hope in your heart

    Hope in your heart Loyalty and patience, two undervalued concepts... Admin

    Messages:
    19,696
    Likes Received:
    13,132
    For me, looking at it from the outside, I can honestly say that I don't know. Living in a small state right in the heart of Europe having made the choice by popular referendum to stay outside of the EU (regular polls confirming this throughout the years), I know of course that it's possible to have a life outside of the EU. I also know for a fact that if I was asked the question now, I'd vote against joining.

    That's because I honestly think that the EU are on the wrong path currently, regarding a few crucial matters. Like for instance insufficient democratic rights, excessive concentration of power in favour of the big countries (ie. Germany, France), a normative obsession which doesn't sufficiently take into account the cultural and economic differences between the states, a much too fast enlargement of the EU, with the integration of states who, in my humble opinion, weren't ready for it yet. Also, the way the Greeks have been humiliated in recent years in regards to their economical problems, and how they are now hanged out to dry with the ongoing refugee crisis, isn't a good advertisement for the EU to say the least...

    All of this doesn't fill me with too much confidence that the EU will evolve towards a political structure which can give it's inhabitants a truly secure and democratic frame of life. In the longer term, it could go towards a bureaucratic dictatorship. There are signs of this happening. The EU Commissioners for instance, who hold such an importance in issuing new laws and norms, and who hold as a matter of fact the executive power within the EU: do they have any democratic mandate, or accountability towards the EU citizens? The answer is obviously a clear no. Same goes for the financial power of the European Bank. I also fear that there is a tendency, especially under the influence of France and a few other countries, to centralise the powers and to go more and more away from the structure of a confederation, which was the idea in the first place when it emerged.

    As I see it, there is a lack of a clear commitment towards decentralisation and power to the regions, which would for me represent the way to go, and make me change my mind about joining the EU.


    All of this being said, Europe has known an unprecedented period of peace, stability and economical growth over the last seventy years. The EU has played a major role in this of course. It gave the European countries the opportunity to construct something together, rather than go to war with each other, as they used to do beforehand it's emergence as the major political idea for everyone.

    Small countries like Switzerland and Norway for instance do quite well outside of the EU, but then again, it would be completely hypocritical to deny that they have benefitted a lot of the stability surrounding them. Their main partner in all aspects is the EU, and of course, their main reference point is also the EU.

    So, I can't say that it doesn't concern me when I see a major force in Europe (and also, to be fair, one of it's most active belligerents throughout Europe's history...) considering quitting the EU. For the common destiny of the continent, it could represent a huge blow, although nobody knows what the effects in the long term would be. If it can push the EU to reconsider it's general course, and if it leads them to go ie. for a more decentralised organisation, then it could represent a blessing in disguise for it's long-term perspectives. The again, it could also blow the signal for a rapid disintegration of the European togetherness, and then...


    It's a good idea to hold that referendum anyway. If it is well lead, it allows for a public discussion about what the EU should be or not be, and the relationship between Europe and it's member states. It's also an act of democratic commitment from the British government, and I for one will certainly never criticise them for this. At the end of the day, the EU can only hold a legitimation towards it's people if they are in there out of their own choice.

    As a general rule, going for more democracy, and trusting the people to decide about their own way to go forward, is always a good thing.
     
  4. Kopstar

    Kopstar ★★★★★ Valued Member

    Messages:
    6,875
    Likes Received:
    11,355
    I'd like us to be a member of what we originally signed up for. We didn't join what the EU has become.
     
    Chewbazza, Flobs, Maria and 2 others like this.
  5. Kanonkop

    Kanonkop Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,714
    Likes Received:
    7,850
    Good points @Hope in your heart - on the issue of peace, my own personal view is that NATO probably had more to do with this than the EEC/EU. The latter played it's part of course but it was the former that really unified the major countries in terms of military resurces etc. to present a united front for internal peace and also protection against the then Warsaw pact countries (i.e. the FSU).

    I'm guessing you live in Switzerland rather than Liechtenstein (a country exclusively full of petrol stations and very private banks!!!!!). Switzerland and Norway both being countries that have benefited from close ties and proximity to Europe whilst also being free to govern themselves as they see fit and to broaden economic ties with ROW countries. As you say - a more democratic approach. Norway through its EEA membership obviously has to accept more EU rules than Switzerland but really, the ones it has to accept aren't that onerous or intrusive and are a small fraction of those the EU countries have to adopt.

    As regards the vote in the UK, I suspect that the result may well come down to headlines leading up to the vote. Any negative ones regarding immigrants during the days leading up to the referendum - be it crime, too many of them, loss of control, hiding terrorists etc. - will likely swing the vote firmly towards a Brexit.

    It's a shame that there won't be one neutral and unbiased document produced which clearly defines the likely impact of a Yes or No vote - both pros and cons and then voters can make a rational decision.
     
  6. El Dorado

    El Dorado Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1,199
    I'm an American. For me it's difficult to think of the UK as a member of the EU because it never adopted the currency. Therefore, I wonder what a Brexit accomplishes, other than better control of the borders. Can you explain to me what will change with Brexit?
     
    Flobs likes this.
  7. rupzzz

    rupzzz TIA Regular

    Messages:
    5,697
    Likes Received:
    2,671
    There are pro's and con's to both remaining in Europe and leaving Europe.

    The problem I have with it all is that people are not looking at the bigger picture, and instead focusing on the influx of migrants and think that a Brexit will end that. I don't think it will, other than the free movement of people that are already in the EU coming here to work.

    I hear a lot of "oh they come and steal our jobs" etc - yet funnily enough the vast majority of those that come here from EU nations come here to work hard, and they work much much harder than a lot of brits do.

    I, for example, have a mate that has a construction company. His staff are now mostly Polish rather than English/British. His main reason for this is work ethic that they have over the brits that are constantly on fag breaks, toilet breaks, and look to dodge work whenever (this is his view might I add). His Polish staff will work 10 hours solid in any weather and not piss take with breaks and stoppages.

    The other thing I hear is it will stifle terrorism risks. I agree it might, but to label anyone foreign as a terrorism risk is a dangerous game, particularly when there are ample amounts of Brits that have turned to terrorism of late.

    I'm very much with @Kopstar - it's not what it was meant to be.

    Personally I'm not sure about Brexit as yet, mostly because, as my post states, there's so many pro's and con's to both. I see the argument from both sides, but as yet don't know which way I will vote.
     
  8. GreenRedGreen

    GreenRedGreen Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,165
    Likes Received:
    1,122
    As long as you take Ireland with you, we promise to be good this time.
     
  9. Kanonkop

    Kanonkop Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,714
    Likes Received:
    7,850
    In reality, I suspect Brexit will defacto mean a return to how it used to be...but with less money going to the EU each year than was the case under the Common Market.

    By the way - that probably also means free movement of people remains. E.G. A Norwegian can work in the UK or vice versa at the moment without needing a work permit.
     
    koptician and rupzzz like this.
  10. lfc.eddie

    lfc.eddie "¿Plata... O Plomo?" Valued Member

    Messages:
    40,095
    Likes Received:
    20,507
    There is a good reason why Britain did not adopt Euro, it is a good thing for both sides because British currency is traded at higher value compared to other European countries by some distance. If Britain adopt Euro, it will inflate the value of Euro and make everything too expensive for the people in Europe, and smaller economy will not survive and will need more assistance. As it is, Greece and a a few other European countries after years of being in Euro, felt the pinch and now dying economically. That's the reason behind the currency adoption, Britain's Pound Sterling holds much higher value, they do not want to devalue it and other European countries cannot afford to adopt it.

    Euro was formed to become the second currency the world will be using to trade instead of using US Dollars which will strengthen America alone. That's basically the plan, to make Europe stronger and able to compete with financial power houses like America. Didn't really turn out that way, unfortunately.
     
    koptician and Hope in your heart like this.
  11. rupzzz

    rupzzz TIA Regular

    Messages:
    5,697
    Likes Received:
    2,671
    Work permit is one thing...what about a visa? Not sure how the system works in Norway.
     
  12. El Dorado

    El Dorado Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1,199
    I think it also has a lot to do with financial sovereignty, which is what many MP's and financial leaders in Britain argued. Take a look at this chart:

    Screen Shot 2016-01-27 at 8.19.20 AM.png

    It basically shows how the UK was able to weaken its currency quickly against the euro in 2009 during the financial crisis. Basically, it performed QE like the US because it had the ability to make the decision in the near term. It took years for Europe to agree to using easing measure. That allowed the UK to recover more quickly than Europe. By maintaining its currency, Britain gave itself more flexibility. Therefore, those who argued against the euro have been proven right.

    So with Brexit, then, what changes? Passport control? Does Britain send more money to Brussels than it receives in benefits? I'm not sure how all that works.
     
    Flobs likes this.
  13. YPhrunts

    YPhrunts Member

    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    55
    I've voted 'don't know' because I'm confused by it all. It's supposed to be a European union but Turkey now wants to be a member and I never regarded Turkey as part of Europe. I don't want any sort of tribalism within the union and yet it would enter with Turkey. So I'd vote leave on that one.

    Also it's the simple things that piss me off like Romanian gypsy types coming over here and living off benefits because of the disparity in the cost of living and quality of life between member states. I reckon the more wealthy states will always be a magnet for the scroungers and those wanting something for nothing and there is no way we can avoid being taken for a ride because they have unrestricted entry. Watching some of them on TV laughing at our gullibility makes me want to put a foot through the screen. Vote leave.

    I don't like the idea that Scotland might seek another referendum and break up the UK if we vote to leave because I believe Trident is an essential sleeping pill for us all and we'd be restless and worried without it. Vote stay.

    I don't like the way Greece is being bounced out of the Schengen agreement and it demonstrates how undemocratic and bullying the executive can be. Vote leave.

    Then there is Merkel's shortsighted behaviour dropping all other member states in the sh*t and then issuing immigrant quotas on other members with threatening behaviour if they didn't dig her out of the mess she created. Vote leave.

    So I've got five issues on which I would vote leave and one where I would vote stay. The problem is that the one issue I would vote stay is probably the single most important issue for me. I don't want to see an independent Scotland with a razor wire Hadrian's Wall errected by us to stop illegal immigrants entering England from the north after Scotland is bounced into accepting a quota of immigrants from Brussels after it joins the EU.
     
    koptician and Hope in your heart like this.
  14. datapolo

    datapolo TIA New Signing

    Messages:
    335
    Likes Received:
    178
    This is the option I believe many of those like me who want out would accept - a common market and leave it there. Unfortunately Cameron seems to think stopping child benefits to Polish kids in Poland is enough. It isn't and i want out right now, no looking back.

    The EU has obliterated democracy and very much weakened our ability to get it back. Britain will be better off and we will have a better chance of calling our own politicians to order - they cannot hide behind the EU.
     
    Nick_LFC likes this.
  15. YPhrunts

    YPhrunts Member

    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    55
    In my previous post I only listed four reasons to vote leave when I said there were five.
    My bad.
    My fifth reason to leave comes down to my frustration at the amount of traffic on the roads. The A roads around my town are getting beyond a joke and allowing more people into the country suddenly will not allow the road infrastructure to develop organically to deal with it. I'm sick of sitting for hours in a car waiting to get where I want to go and it never used to be like this. If you have ever driven on the continent you will realise how large the land mass is and the quality of their roads are superior to ours as well. You only have to cross the channel and experience the traffic on the roads in Kent to those in Calais to realise the difference in space and population density. Spain and Italy are the same. All cities have traffic jams, Barcelona and Paris are equal to London but get out of the cities and you suddenly notice the difference.
    I don't know what the numbers are for people leaving these shores compared to those coming in but I certainly don't want it to be made any easier for people to live here of any nationality including the Chinese, Ozzies, Yanks, Russians you name them....stay at home. We have our own indigenous population increase to deal with thank you very much and don't need another mass influx similar to Leicester and Bradford in the 60's. Have you visited Dublin recently? It's full of Chinese.
    Some figures that might be of interest.
    In order to match England's population density of 413 people per square kilometre, European countries would have to take in the following numbers of migrants:- Austria 26.4 million, Denmark 12.4 million, France 162.3 million, Germany 65.6 million, Greece 42.8 million, Italy 64.7 million, Poland 90.5 million, Spain 162.1million, Sweden 176.3 million. Conversely, if England had the same population density as say France, it's population would be 14.5 million.
    Vote leave.

    Why are there only 10 votes on this crucial issue for the future of our country? Bemused.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2016
    Sandeep likes this.
  16. lfc.eddie

    lfc.eddie "¿Plata... O Plomo?" Valued Member

    Messages:
    40,095
    Likes Received:
    20,507
    Damn....
     
    howhardgerrard likes this.
  17. ptt

    ptt Mane I'm excited for this season

    Messages:
    11,156
    Likes Received:
    6,901
    I've not voted yet for a very good reason. The transfer window is still open, priorities!

    As mentioned elsewhere though, it would be good to have the figures as to how it would actually affect our economy rather than those banded about by the two sides to try to win votes. How much do we spend now on the EU and what do we get back. What will we lose and what will we gain. Getting that info without the spin is like getting a straight answer out of a politician.

    At heart though, I've more in common with our family to the west rather than those to the east. Will be a huge landslide to leave regardless though. The country's full and that will be most people's deciding factor.
     
    koptician and Flobs like this.
  18. Maria

    Maria The Misfit one

    Messages:
    9,153
    Likes Received:
    7,758
    @Hope in your heart, you made really good points, especially about countries who in the heart of Europe, but are not part of the EU, but can still play an important role in European affairs. It is encouraging to think, that IF the UK voted to leave the EU, there is life after it, if Switzerland, the Scandinavian countries can manage without EU, maybe so can the UK.I have always believed the UK was more closer to Europe than US because of our close proximity to the borders, cultural and historical ties, trading links etc. So, I was always in favour to be part of the EU (but not part of the Euro currency), but the last few years, I have become quite disillusioned with the way the EU has become.

    To be honest, I have voted don't know, because, the way EU is run now, it wasn't the same, when we first joined in 1972. I am with @Kopstar on this. I really need read a bit more on the pros and cons as I m not sure. I am not in favour of EU rules overuling our own UK laws, which I find bizarre. However, I am in favour of small local businesses in our rural communities, like small farming communities, such as the dairy industry being helped by the EU. Also, politically, when it comes to international affairs and conflicts, I feel the EU is more fair and logical in finding solutions in conflicts.
     
    koptician and Hope in your heart like this.
  19. Kanonkop

    Kanonkop Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,714
    Likes Received:
    7,850
    If and when farming subsides are required...these can be dished out by the UK government directly to UK farmers...There is no need to have the EU in between to fulfil those requirements.
     
    ptt likes this.
  20. Maria

    Maria The Misfit one

    Messages:
    9,153
    Likes Received:
    7,758
    @Kanonkop fair point. I feel small businesses need help so they are not intimidated by these corporate run multinationals. I hope the UK govt would help them.
     
    RaoulDuke likes this.
  21. RaoulDuke

    RaoulDuke Wind-Down Merchant

    Messages:
    11,930
    Likes Received:
    1,903


    The UK gov help vs multinational corporations?
    I thought the UK government has been run by such multinational corporations since the thatcher era?



    I agree that they would need help, though.
     
    koptician, Flobs and lfc.eddie like this.
  22. Maria

    Maria The Misfit one

    Messages:
    9,153
    Likes Received:
    7,758
    They have, I am sure. This why I felt EU have helped these small businesses throughout the years and they have thrived under the EU. I am not sure how helpful the UK will be to be honest. It is a different era now and changed political climate, priorities have changed for each government.
     
  23. RaoulDuke

    RaoulDuke Wind-Down Merchant

    Messages:
    11,930
    Likes Received:
    1,903
    I'm afraid corporate influence got even worse under bliar.
    And now with cameron?
    The city of london and the big CEOs are his pals I'm afraid.
     
    koptician and Maria like this.
  24. Kanonkop

    Kanonkop Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,714
    Likes Received:
    7,850
    They also have endless amounts of Brussels originated red-tape to deal with which hits smaller businesses particularly hard.
     
  25. DEVGRU

    DEVGRU Banned for the umpteenth time

    Messages:
    10,066
    Likes Received:
    1,258
    I think the EU has done a lot of damage to many sections of UK society from top to bottom without the politicians wanting to admit it.

    My parents were farmers and I speak from experince in the hell they have been through over the last 10 years to the point now that they have given up doing what they love because they are simply too many stupid rules in place that make it impossible for them to do what they have been doing for well over 70 years.

    Some of the rules the EU have in place are just down right stupid.

    I am sick of this EU business. Greece and it's mess included.

    Of course, joining the EU has had it's benefits but...it's also been a total disaster for some of us.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2016
    Flobs likes this.
  26. mattyhurst

    mattyhurst TIA Regular

    Messages:
    10,741
    Likes Received:
    4,373
    I'm very much voting to remain.

    European Social Fund capital has helped a number of the poorest regions in this country, regions that both shades of government have chosen to ignore for the last 30 years. You could say the UK government will choose to fund those instead of the EU but why haven't they chose to do that in the last 30 years why were people like Geoffery Howe suggesting "managed decline" for cities like Liverpool instead of looking at ways of re-imaging such cities.

    "It will be like Norway" - No it won't, Norway also still contributes at the level of 10th largest contributor and is governed by the EU market rules but has absolutely no say over how that money is spent, it pays that price for access to the single market and also the freedom of movement suggested by some here.

    If we choose we don't want those options then fine, but we won't stop contributing but have all those benefits because Norway also have them.... well it's simply not true.

    If you want better democracy maybe engaging in the Democratic process of the EU would be the way forward, British democracy is a sham, councils have very little control over much of our services, those who control the police are voted in by 15% of the people. 34% of the people who bothered to register didn't actually vote in wards, there are safe seats that have never returned anything other than Red, Blue, Yellow or whatever if you think leaving the EU will breathe new life into a democracy that was quoted out of date in the 1830's then sadly you are misguided.

    There are issues with Europe but the "red tape" some mention is vital protection for others, some policy is silly but other policy is highly beneficial such as data roaming and the like.

    I think it will probably end up like the Scottish vote, very tight but will end up with a vote to remain, if your argument for leaving is solely about immigration then I've got news for you the world is going have vast migration from it's equatorial countries in the next 100-200 years because those places will become inhospitable.

    Wasn't this board the same one in which I read someone moaning about the work permit taking so long for Grujic.... Get used to it if the UK leaves.
     
  27. Flobs

    Flobs FADA

    Messages:
    2,330
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    Britain is nothing like Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and at least a million worlds away from Liechenstien.
    All those mentioned have powerful allies in europe, Britain would be an economic giant outside europe considered to have dodgy financial practices at best.
    The picture you paint is so lovely however France and Germany will not look on such a move kindly, it's already an enormous problem that Britain don't have the euro. This could be used as a pay back day on a state vs state level. As for private finance Britain will be able to devalue the pound to being completely worthless (if it isn't already) and investment from europe would still probably dry up. Just look how much French companies are pouring into Britain, all I can say if 1/4 of that started to stay in France we would soon become a commercial giant again.
    The EU don't want to loose Britains financial practices you are correct and they will try their utmost to persuade Britain to stay in but to suggest France or Germany will permit countries to exit and rejoin at will and under their terms is passing hyperbole.

    It is impossible to predict exactly what could happen but it certainly will not be pretty!
     
  28. Flobs

    Flobs FADA

    Messages:
    2,330
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    Brilliant!
     
  29. Flobs

    Flobs FADA

    Messages:
    2,330
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    That is completely untrue!
    Up until 2008 Ireland, Greece and Spain and to a certain extent Italy were doing very well indeed from being in the Euro. 2008 changed all that.
    Recently it is the Euro that has held a high value and Britain devalues whenever it wants to increase it's economic growth. I am not saying that is bad and Britain shouldn't just that one should look at what is really going on of course opinions can differ but facts remain the same and shouldn't be manipulated to such an extent as above.

    You make it sound as if Thatcher is still PM!
     
  30. Flobs

    Flobs FADA

    Messages:
    2,330
    Likes Received:
    1,311
    Turkey has wanted to join the EU since I can remember, leaving aside it's democratic history, France has always been against Turkey joining and probably always will be. This just will not happen in our life time imo so isn't an argument. What is disturbing for me is Albania.
    From what I have read so far there is no communication between European countries. I think before deciding anything people need to be informed about each member state. We have remained so insular within our member states it's like taking a hallucinogenic drug each time you try to get information on european matters. Our separate national press and their agendas must take a big blame here.
     

Share This Page