The Run In

Discussion in 'The Albert - LFC Talk' started by Dane, Mar 10, 2017.

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  1. Arminius

    Arminius FSG PR plant Moderator

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    There is a really crippling psychology to the slow sense of losing control of the outcome - the 'nearing the end of the runway' idea. A win at Palace tells ManU, for example, they need to win both their games in hand, beat City, and then have to earn more points than Liverpool over the remaining four game run. Makes a draw feel like a disaster.
     
  2. NYRhockey

    NYRhockey Well-Known Member

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    ManU's schedule assuming they win tomorrow (and they bloody should) is super tight.

    4/20 - EL
    4/23 - @ Burnley who are tough at home
    4/27 - @ City
    4/30 - Swansea
    5/04 - 1st leg Semi's EL
    5/07 - @ Arsenal
    5/11 - 2nd leg
    5/14 - @ Tottenham
    5/17 - Soton

    So in less than a month's time they'll have to play 9 games with no more than 4 days between them. I don't see how they don't drop points. That's a brutal schedule and not a very good team.
     
  3. rickardinho1

    rickardinho1 Active Member

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    Good points, but United only have 2 league games rather than 3 (City away and Swansea home) before we play Watford away on May 1st, since their Burnley fixture is the early Sunday kickoff before we play Palace. :-)

    Nonetheless, City play Arsenal in the FA Cup this weekend, so beating Palace would see us go 5 points ahead of them (with 2 games more played), so they would have to beat United (home) and Middlesbrough (away) to keep pace. And if they did win both of those to go 1 point ahead of us we could immediately go 2 points clear with a win at Watford the day after they play Middlesbrough.

    Likewise, beating Palace puts us 12 points ahead of Arsenal, and though they have 3 games in hand that piles the pressure on them as they wouldn't have any margin for error if they wanted to keep in touch.

    Needless to say it's a big game against Palace, as it's always good to be ahead with points on the board to put pressure on others.
     
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  4. liver1

    liver1 Well-Known Member

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    There is certainly a negative psychological effect when at the back of your mind, even before the game starts, you know that if you win you dont gain anything on your opponent, its the bare minimum you must achieve.

    It can slightly take the edge off the players in a game.

    Its like when all your rivals win their games on Saturday and youve got to play last on Sunday afternoon.

    Now imagine being 3 games behind and it can be disheartening.

    Ill bet for example Spurs would love to play their games a day before Chelsea do , just to add that extra bit of pressure and unsettle them.
     
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  5. Alright Now

    Alright Now Well-Known Member

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    Yep. Arsenal could have 9 matches in 34 days if they make the FA final. Manu could have 11 in 34 days if they get to the EL final.
     
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  6. LFC-Orlando

    LFC-Orlando TIA First Team

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    EL and FA Cup final don't matter as far as impact on PL performance, they are after the PL last round.
     
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  7. rickardinho1

    rickardinho1 Active Member

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    If United have a EL final 4 days after the last game of the season (a final in which they could secure direct qualification to the CL group stages), and only an outside chance of the CL (say, 2-3 points behind us with us playing Middlesbrough at home in the last gameweek), then Mourinho might just be tempted to rest one or two players for the EL final instead of going all-out against Palace and hoping we lose against Middlesbrough.
     
  8. Makati Red

    Makati Red Well-Known Member

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    Id expect 5th placed to team this season to get at least 72 points but next season it could be 76 points as it seems with the possible exception of Arsenal the current top 6 will only get stronger with Man City, Utd and Ourselves likely to be a lot stronger in points terms next season.

    As I said in the Palace thread beat Palace and I think its all over for the rest
     
  9. rickardinho1

    rickardinho1 Active Member

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    That gets said every year but there's usually only ever one or two teams that actually take the step up and improve significantly in any given season.

    Take Van Gaal's United for example: They signed Di Maria, Depay, etc.. plus Falcao on loan, and were expected to challenge for the title but totally flopped. So was this seasons United with Pogba, Zlatan, etc. Needless to say, "Getting stronger" is easier to do on paper than it is on the pitch.

    City have a huge transition to do, with lots of older players to move on and presumably plenty of new faces to bed in. Chelsea will have European football again and need to add some new faces to strengthen the squad, just like us.

    Arsenal's success or failure will center around how they resolve the Sanchez and Wenger drama's, but it does seem likely that they'll struggle to challenge for the league next season unless they have a very great summer (which seems unlikely if they miss out on CL).

    Also, don't forget that Spurs could be set back if they get raided by City (for fullbacks for example) or even by some teams offering Alli some big money.

    Just got to focus on getting our 4-5 signings right to keep pushing on in the right direction, and then let other clubs do whatever they do.
     
  10. Jimmyscase

    Jimmyscase DoctorJimmy's casebook. Aerial knee-job merchant

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    It's extreme but let's not forget it's LFC's ambition to be in the same situation as this every season in April / May. I would think Mou has vaccinated his squad against looking at any club in a less stressful situation with envy. I think we should assume they will rise to the occasion and both teams might have to win everything.
     
  11. lfc.eddie

    lfc.eddie "¿Plata... O Plomo?" Valued Member

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    You have got to make up your mind which is which. Beating Palace will give you 69 points, shy of 3 points from the 72 which you expect to be the amount collected by 5th spot. So let's not get ahead of ourselves, we will need 3 wins and a draw out of the next 5 games in order to secure our position for Champs League berth, that is assuming Arsenal and United do drop a couple of games on the way.
     
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  12. Jimmyscase

    Jimmyscase DoctorJimmy's casebook. Aerial knee-job merchant

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    I'm beginning to see this year's CL placings run in as a rehearsal for the next few years, based on a number of pre-conditions. Firstly, France's UEFA coefficient won't exceed ours –even if Italy's does– for the next three years. Secondly, Klopp took two-three seasons to peak in each new competition his Dortmund entered. So whereas this season finishing 4th is realistic, next season 2-3rd is.
    If we are in CL next season, 3rd in the group is realistic (maybe first K.O. round) but the following year SF might be on. Silverware is possible 1 year later either in the league or CL.
     
  13. rickardinho1

    rickardinho1 Active Member

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    The interesting thing is that often times success in the Europa League precedes success in the Champions League. Here are some notable examples:
    • Liverpool: Won Uefa cup in 2001, reached CL QF in 2002, then won CL in 2005.
    • Porto: Won Uefa cup in 2003, then CL in 2004
    • Atletico Madrid: Won EL in 2010 and 2011, reached CL final in 2014 and 2016
    • Juventus: SF of EL in 2014, reached CL final in 2015
    With a view of next season I think it's fairly realistic to expect a title challenge. The team would have been challenging this season but for Mané being away in January and numerous injuries, but some shrewd summer signings should surely solve those issues.

    As for Europe, a lot depends on getting a good draws in the groups and knockouts, so it's hard to predict beforehand exactly what would be reasonable. For example, it's a bit silly to say that anything short of a QF is failure if you then get drawn against Real Madrid in the R16 and get knocked out by the odd goal. Fine margins and all that.

    The good thing is that this team is really only just entering it's prime now, and figures to be pretty competitive for the next few seasons given that Coutinho, Firmino, Mané, Matip, Wijnaldum, Henderson, and Clyne all between 24 and 26 years old, and some younger players like Can and Origi (both 21) looking to kick on after some solid seasons. Mignolet is 29 and so is entering his prime in terms of GK years.

    Add some solid players on top of that core (eg. Van Dijk 25, Brandt 21, Keita 22) and you're looking at a very formidable European team.
     
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  14. Joe Ware

    Joe Ware Well-Known Member

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    I would be very disappointed if we got knocked out of the group stages of the CL - in fact quite disappointed if we were knocked out before the quarter finals.
    Our startin XI is more than good enough to get that far and as we generally raise our game against the better teams then I think we would stand a good chance of getting there.
     
  15. rupzzz

    rupzzz TIA Regular

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    I've looked at all the fixtures, and read the last couple of pages, and I am none the wiser.

    I'll stick to enjoying each game when it comes, and hoping Klopp can set the team up to win each and every one. At the end of the season, we can look at the table and know what's what.

    No point banking on wins either. We are just as likely to spank Palace as we are to lose to them. One game at a time - it's boring, but it saves brain cells and stress.
     
  16. rupzzz

    rupzzz TIA Regular

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    Bit hard to state that due to the fact that we are not in the CL as yet, we don't know what the summer holds in terms of transfers, and most importantly, we don't know the CL groups! There's always a "group of death" - if we end up with two big teams in our group (provided we make it into the group stages), then we should be ready for disappointment...
     
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  17. Wyld@Heart

    Wyld@Heart Well-Known Member

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    Depends on the big teams. Our seeding is shit so if we make it we're probably gonna end up with a scary looking group whether we like it or not. Having said that, there are some teams that I feel we can take to task given our style of play while others are likely to really be an uphill battle. Rather counterintuitively, I reckon we can rattle Barca's cage while I would simply dread facing Atletico or an Italian team.

    Lets just get there first though and figure it out later.
     
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  18. Arminius

    Arminius FSG PR plant Moderator

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    We are currently seeded #34, so right in the boundary between Pot 3 and Pot 4. Depending on how Pot 1 shakes out, some of the top 8 get pushed down a slot or two, but there are usually a couple of higher rated teams that don't make it to the CL or the group, so we might squeak into Pot 3. We would be a fairly nasty Pot 4 draw.

    I don't have any great expectations if we manage to make the group round, basically just don't crap the bed like we did with Rodgers. In that vein, I'd love to see us go through the learning experience of playing some cagey Italian team.
     
  19. Limiescouse

    Limiescouse Well-Known Member

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    Low seeding is less bad for Prem teams than for other sides. With the way UEFA seeds now, with champions getting priority over non-champions of big leagues, you can get a more favourable draw in our situation than you used to be able to get as Champs of the French league.
     
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  20. SBYM

    SBYM I'm just living the dream

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    JK has made a CL final.

    Ipso facto, I'll settle for one step more and nothing less.
     
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  21. Arminius

    Arminius FSG PR plant Moderator

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    Yes, Pot #1 has become a real wild card, Pot #2 is often just about as strong. On the other hand, we could end up with a Real Madrid-Dortmund-Napoli group as a Pot#4 team

    Cool group to watch though....
     
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  22. redfanman

    redfanman TIA Regular Valued Member

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    We'd probably beat them all, only to go out to Genk in the next round lol
     
  23. Jimmyscase

    Jimmyscase DoctorJimmy's casebook. Aerial knee-job merchant

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    Klopp's still an inexperienced manager by definition of the term in England, but in terms of 'managing' CL requirements he's an old stager already. He blueprinted the approach to take with a young team over the course of his four CL seasons. He can apply the patient game to our campaigns (hopefully starting next season) and he'll relish taking this group of players on a learning curve steeper than he did at Dortmund
     
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  24. liver1

    liver1 Well-Known Member

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    Our pedigree in Europe tends to carry us through. Unlike the Arsenals and Man Citys who are insecure when it comes to Europe, we dont have any fear factor of anyone, especially in 2 legged matches with 1 at Anfield.

    The Rodgers season in the Champions League im not even going to count. The guy thought he was being clever in suddenly benching Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho, Johnson and Sterling vs Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.

    Maybe our biggest game in years, something for the fans to get excited about and he goes with Manquillo, Lucas, Allen, Markovic and Borini in the starting line up.
     
  25. Arminius

    Arminius FSG PR plant Moderator

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    I am afraid I don't count much on our pedigree. Right now, it is not much more than a name, although we did some damage in the EL last year. Arsenal has got out of the group stage umpteen times in a row, we are still desperately hoping for a chance to make it the first time in 9 years next season. We are still a long way from a two-legged Anfield match. I will be fairly pleased if we can make it to the knockout round, depending of course on whom we draw (and getting a CL spot in the first place).
     
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  26. lfc.eddie

    lfc.eddie "¿Plata... O Plomo?" Valued Member

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    We are not in it, so could be jinxing our chance to get there, but what the heck....

    You are right that there won't be much expectations in this current setup. None of them came out of the competition a couple of years back smelling like roses, but then again, none of Rodgers side has done well in the European competition or two legged cup ties. From his first season with us in the Europa league to the Champs League where he threw in the towel way before the game starts, to the Europa League games we played when he was with us. That's because without a bunch of players with experience that he could rely on, he himself carries no experience in the competition either. Having experienced manager in this competition does help and Klopp, like Rafa before him, has been there. The only difference is the Spaniard won his finals while Klopp didn't.
     
  27. Arminius

    Arminius FSG PR plant Moderator

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    I think we have already seen that with Klopp. Although it was a disappointing end, that run to the finals was worth 24 of our current 55 coefficient points, so we have a shot at Pot 3 spot if we manage to get in and get to the group stage. Otherwise we'd be nailed on for a Pot 4 spot.

    So I see this season as a group learning how to grind out the wins needed to get a Top 4 spot, and building on last year's EL run to give us a chance to step up a notch in Europe. I don't see a title challenge or a deep run in Europe next year as likely, but I would expect progress toward both.

    On that note, even if we just miss out on CL, I'd really like to see us use the EL to build the club the way Atletico did. They never managed it in one step the way Leicester did, but they have built something a bit more permanent.
     
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  28. geebo

    geebo Bekloppt ! (German for loopy)

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    If we would qualify for the CL (notice the subjunctive and NOT indicative), Klopps spending spree will include a large chaocie of quality player than last year. Klopp + CL will bring in the quality us fans crave.... as for thre Arse and MAnu, yes, they have Cup matches and 2 games a week or more. At this time of the season team hardly ever get maximum points from 2 games in hand, let alone 3, and let alon e (in man us case) when they are away to Citeh and Arsenal - however

    If, Manu beat many City and Arsenal- we gain 3 pts on Arsenal (enough) and 3 on citeh - very good. And we move closer to the top 3. If they lose both we move closer to the top three. For me, its these to games where we are in a win win !
     
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  29. lfc.eddie

    lfc.eddie "¿Plata... O Plomo?" Valued Member

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    Hell yes, would love to see us winning something and get used to it. There is no substitute in winning trophies, especially a European tourney.
     
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  30. liver1

    liver1 Well-Known Member

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    Hate to say it but I want Manu to get through in the Europa League. If they get to the semi's they will take their eye off the ball in the league.

    I suspect Mourinho already has that in the back of his mind.

    Given the choice of getting to the Champions League by winning 3 games against the likes of Celta Vigo Ajax and Lyon vs chasing us down and having to play Man City away, Arsenal away, Tottenham away, the Europa League is the easier option for them.
     
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