2019/2020 Fixtures v 2018/2019 Results - Season Comparison

jaffod

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Feb 8, 2015
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Horrible, horrible night that. I was working lates and finished at nine. I worked in a massive warehouse and we had a radio on near the chargehand’s office. By eight o’clock everyone had fucked any pretence of work off and we were all stood/sat around the radio. We’d always had friendly banter with the “bluenose” fans in the workforce. But that night changed it all. There were a couple of BS lads who were urging Arsenal on and cheering their every pass. With minutes to go the chargehand said we could go. Cue a “Le Mans” style rush to our cars. I got in my car and had Radio City on just in time to hear Michael Thomas score. I was gutted, but what made it worse was one of the BS fans got out of his car and danced on the roof and bonnet. To put this into context, he’d bought the car (Vauxhall Astra GTi) brand new. Every tea or lunch break he’d be outside polishing off any dust that might have settled on it in the interim. Yet here he was dancing on it. It sickened me and my attitude towards them across the park changed in an instant.
I drove home and as I entered our house Mrs CDO mk1asked me to go up and see CDO Jr as he was upset. When I got to his room he was in bed crying. I asked him what was up? He told me he was crying because “all those people died and I wanted Liverpool to win to make everyone happy”.
I’ve made no secret on here about CDO Jr being a blue. That night we decided that, because he didn’t want to come to Anfield with me and I wouldn’t take him to Goodison then we’d follow Tranmere until we thought he was old enough to go to Goodison on his own. We had some great times over the following seasons. Traveling to Wembley countless times to see Rovers in Play Offs, Leyland Daf trophies and the League Cup. We then started following Poulton Vics in the West Cheshire and got a Wembley trip out of that as well.
When he started going to Everton matches with his mates I was able to return to my beloved Reds. He is still the most level headed and unbiased Blue that I know.

Sorry about this ramble in the “Season comparison” thread. Let’s get back to talking about all of the pretty green.
Funny how we can often pinpoint a moment in time when they say/do something and it changes everything from then on.

Mine was when they beat Wimbledon to stay up (due to that bent bastard Segers). I remember the day well, the Mrs had gone to the match and I was decorating one of the bedrooms. At half time they were 2-0 down and staring relegation in the face and I have to admit I felt really sorry for the Mrs and all the other decent Evertonians I knew. The rest is history, a bent goalkeeper throws the game and they stay up.

On the Monday I stroll into work (the old Girobank) and the first person I come across is some fat dickhead I was on nodding aquaintences with. Feeling magnanimous towards our blue neighbours I said something along the lines of "Fucking hell mate that was a close thing on Saturday wasn't it?"
"Yeah, can't wait for next season so we can do those fucking red cunts" he blurted. Full on anger straightaway, red face and genuine animosity. I just looked at him in disbelief.
And that was that. A real lightbulb moment. From that day I can count on the fingers of one hand the occasions I've wanted them to win a game of football and all of those would have been because it benefitted us in some way.
I don't want them to win as much as a fucking corner. I want them relegated to the fucking conference and never come back. I will never, ever understand other reds who want them to do well because of some bollocks reason like it's good for the city or it pushes us on to be even better. A large proportion of their fanbase are complete and utter cunts and an embarrassment to this city. Mancs in everything but birthplace. I absolutely despise them.
 

Perth Red

Deep in the wilds of outback Queensland
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Aug 30, 2010
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And as of today, more than double the points of everyone outside the top four, 3 more points to guarantee top 8, seven more points to guarantee CL football next season!
 

Jimmyscase

DoctorJimmy: knee-high flying tackle specialist
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And as of today, more than double the points of everyone outside the top four, 3 more points to guarantee top 8, seven more points to guarantee CL football next season!
It's better than that. Only five teams could be above us if we get 73 points because any more than five isn't possible with the necessary permutation of wins and draws; they'd take too many points off each other.
Likewise, 76 is all that's needed for top 4.
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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It's better than that. Only five teams could be above us if we get 73 points because any more than five isn't possible with the necessary permutation of wins and draws; they'd take too many points off each other.
Likewise, 76 is all that's needed for top 4.
And that's before other teams play and potentially drop points. We might not need to pick up another point and we would almost certainly finish in the top 4, probably top 3.
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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Mar 4, 2015
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weirdly Southampton, Sheffield United and Wolves should be on the table too, even if briefly!
Originally I was only going to do Leicester and Man City who I felt were our only rivals for the League, then I extended it to teams I felt we would enjoy seeing the chase to topple them. The above you mentioned fell into neither category so left them out. But you are right, for accuracy they should be in
 

Jimmyscase

DoctorJimmy: knee-high flying tackle specialist
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And that's before other teams play and potentially drop points. We might not need to pick up another point and we would almost certainly finish in the top 4, probably top 3.
In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
 
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