- Sep 25, 2012
I think this is the longest way of saying "you're right" that I've ever come across! So if we lose every game we are still likely to finish 3rd? Outside chance of 2nd or 4th but probably no higher or lower? If I read it correctly? At the end of January we already have enough points to finish top 3? Incredible!In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.
These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.