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2019/2020 Fixtures v 2018/2019 Results - Season Comparison

Anfield rd Dreamer

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In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
I think this is the longest way of saying "you're right" that I've ever come across! So if we lose every game we are still likely to finish 3rd? Outside chance of 2nd or 4th but probably no higher or lower? If I read it correctly? At the end of January we already have enough points to finish top 3? Incredible!
 

Sweeting

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Jun 2, 2008
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10,293
In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
1/8000 is a lot shorter than I expected those odds to be.

Now I'm worried.
 
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cynicaloldgit

#MbappéonaBosman2022
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In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
Haven’t you got better things to do with your time? :ROFLMAO:

“in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)”

1 in 8000? More like 1 in 8 trillion. There’s absolutely no chance that we fail to win another point this season, no matter what your simulations say.
 

Jimmyscase

DoctorJimmy: knee-high flying tackle specialist
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Haven’t you got better things to do with your time? :ROFLMAO:

“in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)”

1 in 8000? More like 1 in 8 trillion. There’s absolutely no chance that we fail to win another point this season, no matter what your simulations say.
I wrote this post in a doctor's waiting room. So perhaps I was drawn to thoughts of the chances of various negative stuff happening.
It's never in a quadrillion years that unlikely btw.
"1 in 8 trillion'. The stats tables tell me that's the residual chance Man United could be Champions!!!!
I'm not trying to put a nerd hex on us.
 
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cynicaloldgit

#MbappéonaBosman2022
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The hypothesis wasn't about how likely it is we lose every match.
The maths I quoted backed up @Anfield rd Dreamer in his hypothesis that a top 4 place with 70 points is already very likely.
Fair enough.

I think we can safely agree that we’re highly likely to be playing Champions League football next season.

Now, for your homework you need to calculate the odds of Mbappé signing for us by the end of the summer transfer window.
 

Flobs

FADA
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Apr 20, 2015
Messages
10,491
In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
Got it, thanks. o_O :unsure:
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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Mar 4, 2015
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292
This is my lunch break, just sitting doing mad shit like this until I get told to get back to work. I genuinely didn't expect this comparison thread to go well as I thought last year we were unbelievable and it was going to be a thankless task. So I was sat wondering if we are better than last year how much better are we than 17/18?

 

rockafella

Registered before you did
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Feb 1, 2004
Messages
904
This is my lunch break, just sitting doing mad shit like this until I get told to get back to work. I genuinely didn't expect this comparison thread to go well as I thought last year we were unbelievable and it was going to be a thankless task. So I was sat wondering if we are better than last year how much better are we than 17/18?

Mine is sitting here clicking refresh on this thread.
 

Jimmyscase

DoctorJimmy: knee-high flying tackle specialist
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May 18, 2016
Messages
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This is my lunch break, just sitting doing mad shit like this until I get told to get back to work. I genuinely didn't expect this comparison thread to go well as I thought last year we were unbelievable and it was going to be a thankless task. So I was sat wondering if we are better than last year how much better are we than 17/18?

Not so sure this is going in the right direction. Looks like the organic farming experiment has been abandoned and now we've got Monsanto as a sponsor. Monoculture. Bring back yellow and red now!
 

PeachesEnRegalia

Epstein didn't kill himself
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Jul 10, 2017
Messages
2,335
In my weird world populated by fellow maths nerds the exact probabilities for the placings if we lose every game have been estimated:
in 249,501,120 simulations we fail to win any more points 31,028 times (1 in 8000 chance)
and those 31,028 simulations result in:
1st place <0.001%
2nd place 7 %
3rd place 76%
4th place 7 %
5th place <0.001%
6th-10th possible in theory but didn't occur once in any of the 31,028 simulations.

These are the weighted simulations of course. You wouldn't expect me to quote those highly unsophisticated Monte Carlo method-based results, would you?
In the weighted model, in very simple terms, the chances we lose a game after a previous defeat increase and vice versa for wins. Weighting simulates the real life influence of psychology on success and failure.
What?
 

-The Analyst-

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Nov 6, 2016
Messages
170
This is my lunch break, just sitting doing mad shit like this until I get told to get back to work. I genuinely didn't expect this comparison thread to go well as I thought last year we were unbelievable and it was going to be a thankless task. So I was sat wondering if we are better than last year how much better are we than 17/18?
Imagine how depressing the comparison will be next season if we keep riding this wave for the remainder of the season. Would be an impossible season to top in terms of points and wins
 

Jimmyscase

DoctorJimmy: knee-high flying tackle specialist
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May 18, 2016
Messages
5,527
Imagine how depressing the comparison will be next season if we keep riding this wave for the remainder of the season. Would be an impossible season to top in terms of points and wins
@Fowler's Left Peg has had the same thoughts IIRC. Could be just one small symptom of a malaise the whole fan base has to deal with next season. We need the old stagers who were around in the Paisley years to lead the way in terms of appreciating life on a football plateau. It's not going to be as thrilling game for game, for sure.
You could look at our very late wins this season as a weakness and see a game that was won very late on as yellow, the draw(s?) as red. The new green becomes whenever we maintain or extend a lead that we gain by 70 minutes. Just an idea.
Or the criteria could be that green is given to any game we win comfortably enough to put a sub on below the age of 20.;)
 
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[email protected]

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Oct 19, 2014
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Christ, I can't believe the horror show at Spurs was only two seasons ago. After that loss we slipped to 9th with 13 points in 9 games and a negative GD.

We've come a long way.
Genuinely think that was a watershed game for Klopp and how he set up. We've just been immense from basically that game on. 229 points from 91 games and two Champions League finals, one Champions League win and what is looking increasingly like a League title since.
 

Perth Red

Deep in the wilds of outback Queensland
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Aug 30, 2010
Messages
493
It's better than that. Only five teams could be above us if we get 73 points because any more than five isn't possible with the necessary permutation of wins and draws; they'd take too many points off each other.
Likewise, 76 is all that's needed for top 4.
Lol wasn't looking in that much detail, well played!
 

Perth Red

Deep in the wilds of outback Queensland
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Aug 30, 2010
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493
Originally I was only going to do Leicester and Man City who I felt were our only rivals for the League, then I extended it to teams I felt we would enjoy seeing the chase to topple them. The above you mentioned fell into neither category so left them out. But you are right, for accuracy they should be in
Hell it's all good mate, your work is much appreciated! They'll all be gone soon anyway!
 

Perth Red

Deep in the wilds of outback Queensland
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Aug 30, 2010
Messages
493
@Fowler's Left Peg has had the same thoughts IIRC. Could be just one small symptom of a malaise the whole fan base has to deal with next season. We need the old stagers who were around in the Paisley years to lead the way in terms of appreciating life on a football plateau. It's not going to be as thrilling game for game, for sure.
You could look at our very late wins this season as a weakness and see a game that was won very late on as yellow, the draw(s?) as red. The new green becomes whenever we maintain or extend a lead that we gain by 70 minutes. Just an idea.
Or the criteria could be that green is given to any game we win comfortably enough to put a sub on below the age of 20.;)
As one of the old timers I can tell you that for me this is all very different. In those days we always challenged for the title and expected to win it. Didn't always happen of course, we lost games! The long wait between drinks has changed my perspective. Getting over the line this year will be such a release of frustration and built up longing that next year will be an anticlimax whatever happens. Just hope we don't have to wait too long for the next one!
 

Commando

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As one of the old timers I can tell you that for me this is all very different. In those days we always challenged for the title and expected to win it. Didn't always happen of course, we lost games! The long wait between drinks has changed my perspective. Getting over the line this year will be such a release of frustration and built up longing that next year will be an anticlimax whatever happens. Just hope we don't have to wait too long for the next one!
It’s exactly the same for me. I was a kid of twelve years of age when I first saw us lift the First Division Trophy. I’d been born for two of the previous seven but I don’t remember them. I certainly don’t remember a season like this one though (well maybe the last part of last season). where I just feel like we’re going to win every game. Don’t get me wrong, I still get nervous but in a “if everything goes against us (VAR, a combination of Atkinson, Taylor and Moss) way. It used to be whenever we conceded a corner my heart would be in my mouth. Now when we do concede a corner I wonder if we’ll score from a breakaway. *

*My two nephews sit in the front row of The Kop. Whenever we get a corner they try to beat each other to name one of our players who will score from it. A couple of seasons ago when we played the Arse at home one of my nephews couldn’t get to the game. So I sat in the Kop. Arse won a corner and I said to my nephew that Salah would score from it. He did.