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Conspiracy? Bias? Dumb luck? Why do LFC get shit decisions?

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Mascot88

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The stats were only for home games, the reason being it's games at Anfield where I believe we're being harshly treated.
Ah, OK.

Personally I think it’s great that you put the time into doing this, but the very nature of football makes an exercise like this virtually impossible. You can’t prove anything ether way.

What is meant by ‘game changing’? In football every kick of the ball is game changing. And penalties are rarely black and white either. How many were stonewall? How many were marginal? How many required a favour from the ref? How many did the linesman give? What about the style of play?

There are so many variables here that you could go mad trying account for them all.

As Quicksand says you just have to use the evidence of your own eyes, but the problem with this is that if 90% of the football your eyes see is LFC, that will shape your perceptions. My eyes tell me that Liverpool get harshly treated by referees. But my eyes also saw a ghost once. My brain tells me there is no such thing as ghosts and it was something else. My brain tells me that whatever bias does exist, it’s probably not as bad as we think it is.
 


lfc.eddie

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Perception.... one perceived it to be not as bad can be very bad or unacceptable to others.
 

jaffod

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Ah, OK.

Personally I think it’s great that you put the time into doing this, but the very nature of football makes an exercise like this virtually impossible. You can’t prove anything ether way.

What is meant by ‘game changing’? In football every kick of the ball is game changing. And penalties are rarely black and white either. How many were stonewall? How many were marginal? How many required a favour from the ref? How many did the linesman give? What about the style of play?

There are so many variables here that you could go mad trying account for them all.

As Quicksand says you just have to use the evidence of your own eyes, but the problem with this is that if 90% of the football your eyes see is LFC, that will shape your perceptions. My eyes tell me that Liverpool get harshly treated by referees. But my eyes also saw a ghost once. My brain tells me there is no such thing as ghosts and it was something else. My brain tells me that whatever bias does exist, it’s probably not as bad as we think it is.
I know every decision will alter the whole course of the game moving forward but I'm talking about decisions that could absolutely change the outcome as opposed to those that wouldn't so much.
Perfect example being the Keita penalty (not given) late on in the Leicester game with the score at 1-1 and the one we got for the push on Lovren against Arsenal when we were already 4-1 up. Does Atkinson give the Keita one if it had been 4-1 at the time?
 

Commando

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I know every decision will alter the whole course of the game moving forward but I'm talking about decisions that could absolutely change the outcome as opposed to those that wouldn't so much.
Perfect example being the Keita penalty (not given) late on in the Leicester game with the score at 1-1 and the one we got for the push on Lovren against Arsenal when we were already 4-1 up. Does Atkinson give the Keita one if it had been 4-1 at the time?

I don't think Ratkinson would give us a penalty if an opposition defender was standing over the prone body of one of our players, with a smoking gun in his hand.
 



Dane

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Barca will make them look silly tonight. 2300 kick off here so wont see it.
I'll literally fucking wet myself if Everton beat them at the weekend.
 

Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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Hmm It´s interesting that all the pro bias posters have provided circumstancial evidence and imo quite a lot (good work Jaffod) the anti bias posters have provided nothing and I mean a big fat nada! Yet all they do is refute and say well that doesn´t prove anything. What it does prove is that sometimes people are more interested in being right than anything else.

The sky is blue.
No it´s not prove it.
Look at it. It´s blue.
Well sometimes it´s cloudy and I can´t see the sky.
Ok today it´s clear. Look it´s blue.
It´s blue today but yesterday it was cloudy. See it´s not always blue.
 

Spitfire

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Or
You could just watch matches and take note, see how many dubious calls City received this season, and then look at factors that have mitigated against Liverpool.
Manes goal vs Arsenal
Keita pen vs Leicster
Keita pen vs Southampton
Salah pen vs Chelsea
Burnley foul on Allison that led to goal.....
Just off the top of my head, behind the curve and not analysing hard data.
@jaffod has provided statistics for those who try to dispell the notion that Liverpool are treated in a more harsh manner than other clubs. His work is proving that bias exists. And all he is getting, a guy working on his own, all he is getting is "do more".
The people looking for proof are getting it, but now more is required from other posters.

Fair play @jaffod but there really is no pleasing some people. I think the stats provided add to our side if the argument, so well done on that.

@jaffod[/USER] has provided a limited set of statistics for those who try to dispell the notion that Liverpool are treated in a more harsh manner than other clubs. His sample of work proves that bias might exist

I've edited the statement above for you to make it more accurate

In response to your overall post:
Take note of what.......

Thats the problem, from a purely analystical point of view the moment you want to exlcude relevant data or pick the data you 'like' it all but invalidates any argument you make - IF you are trying to prove something to a group of people who are either neutral or disbelieving in your stance.

With that said your opinion is your own as is Jaffod's - and you are wlecome to it, and if the data you have chosen to look at convinces you so be it.

Just remember it doesn't make those that don't agree with you wrong........and to be fair and level it doesn't make them right either.......
 



Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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@jaffod[/USER] has provided a limited set of statistics for those who try to dispell the notion that Liverpool are treated in a more harsh manner than other clubs. His sample of work proves that bias might exist

I've edited the statement above for you to make it more accurate

In response to your overall post:
Take note of what.......

Thats the problem, from a purely analystical point of view the moment you want to exlcude relevant data or pick the data you 'like' it all but invalidates any argument you make - IF you are trying to prove something to a group of people who are either neutral or disbelieving in your stance.

With that said your opinion is your own as is Jaffod's - and you are wlecome to it, and if the data you have chosen to look at convinces you so be it.

Just remember it doesn't make those that don't agree with you wrong........and to be fair and level it doesn't make them right either.......
Ok I´ll take that on board.
Now why don´t you provide us with some of own circumstancial evidence if it´s that easy?
 

Spitfire

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Ok I´ll take that on board.
Now why don´t you provide us with some of own circumstancial evidence if it´s that easy?
Post was for Quicksand....i.e who I responded to; and I never stated it was easy.

To humour the second part of your post to a point:

To state my position based on the thread topic heading:

Do I believe there is a conspiracy at multiple levels of the FA, referee's and others connected with the governing bodies against Liverpool - NO

  • at various times people who have been associated with Liverpool have been involved in these bodies - would they speak up about it?
  • What do each of these individuals involved in this conspiracy have to gain.............and would it be worth it - highly doubtful
  • The level of corruption required to achieve this logically doesn't warrant any potential gain.....i.e financial enrichment or other
Do I believe Bias occurs against Liverpool specifically to the detriment of them over other clubs: In certain contexts it is cetainly possible

This is really the rabbit warren of the debate.......the problem being; there are so many forms of bias and they occur on so many different levels and in so many ways to show a trend across a large number of people is hugely difficult - but to try and summarise I would say the following:

  • It would be hard to conlude on any evidence shown that typical forms of bias occurs on a conscious level en masse across any of the bodies mentioned above - i.e is there some sort of plot against Liverpool - no
  • However you could probably find that through analysis some people involved in FA, referees etc may hold some bias towards LFC conscious or otherwise through normally idientified forms , e.g Confirmation bias, or anchoring.
    • (Sidenote)Anchoring in relation to referees could be hugely interesting in that it relies on making a decision based on the first pieces of information when making a decision.....i.e lets say when a referee is coached - if they are taught that certiain body positions of players when tackling are dangerous or foul worthy - they are likely to keep awarding fouls for them........ regardless of context and if they, made contact or were fouls.......a bias has been formed without realising it - the fun part of this is it could have actually been trained:). Where it would become even more interesting is if over time this teaching changed......you would probably then get inconsistency on any future decision making in these situations..........based on the fact that each referee would have their own intepretation and level of agreement on said changes........another bias:)
  • It should be noted that with the above it could just as easily be that someone has the same bias towards another club.........
Do Liverpool suffer from Dumb Luck
  • yes both in the positive and the negative, as do other clubs from time to time
Finally Why do Liverpool get shit decisions:
  • Put simply the perception of any decision correct or incorrect is subject to bias, from all those interpreting. In a game with two sides at any point in time one group is likely to applaud a decision while the other vilify it.......it's what makes sport so interesting.
  • From a base perspective are we subject to bad decisions at times - yes we are, and again other teams are also subject to these 'shit decisions'.
  • Are referees in game potentially making shit decisions on purpose - on the whole I don;t think they are consciouly but see above, they would be subject to some sort of bias - However in most cases the reason for it may not be "I am doing this against Liverpool"
In conclusion:

Bias on some levels in small sample sizes could be proven to be more than probable with relation to decisions towards Liverpool as a football club. However is it to the level that some are suggesting here - highly unlikley and for some it may be there own bias that is driving the belief that it exists.

Am I going to wade through the statistical evidence over decades to try and reach a conclusion - no. I have better things to do with my life; and the reality is no clear conclusion would be reached. That's the problem with a hypothesis it can never be proven completely. There are those that wouldn't want to see it wouldn't anyway. Kind of ironic when you look at the thread topic really:)

As I stated in the previous post; those that believe it to be so, are welcome to their opinion.
The problem with bias is it exists on a spectrum and is subjective........... so going back to my previous statement:

Just remember it doesn't make those that don't agree with you wrong........and to be fair and level it doesn't make them right either.......
 

Mascot88

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Hmm It´s interesting that all the pro bias posters have provided circumstancial evidence and imo quite a lot (good work Jaffod) the anti bias posters have provided nothing and I mean a big fat nada! Yet all they do is refute and say well that doesn´t prove anything. What it does prove is that sometimes people are more interested in being right than anything else.

The sky is blue.
No it´s not prove it.
Look at it. It´s blue.
Well sometimes it´s cloudy and I can´t see the sky.
Ok today it´s clear. Look it´s blue.
It´s blue today but yesterday it was cloudy. See it´s not always blue.
Yes, that’s it. Let’s divide the forum into opposing tribes, and we can all entrench ourselves in our views. Let’s strip out all night the nuance and detail out of each other’s opinions and straw man the fuck out of each other. That always makes the forum so more fun :rolleyes:
 

CymruRed

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Am i the only one who thinks this thread is pointless? cos no matter what side of the fence you sit on,peeps are going to carry on argueing over shit they can't 100% prove either way and still think they are right (or untill anyone in power comes out and admits something,be it refs or FA),it just seems like a pointless excersie to me lol
 

Spitfire

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Am i the only one who thinks this thread is pointless? cos no matter what side of the fence you sit on,peeps are going to carry on argueing over shit they can't 100% prove either way and still think they are right (or untill anyone in power comes out and admits something,be it refs or FA),it just seems like a pointless excersie to me lol
No - you are not.

Maybe my error was hoping people would interpet this from my posts; instead of just statng it as you have.........
 



Dane

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Yes, that’s it. Let’s divide the forum into opposing tribes, and we can all entrench ourselves in our views. Let’s strip out all night the nuance and detail out of each other’s opinions and straw man the fuck out of each other. That always makes the forum so more fun :rolleyes:
To be fair, that pattern was started by the bloke who felt the need to quote and reply to nearly every single post in here.
It does seem to have become more of a reasoned debate since his mysterious disappearance.
 

Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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Am i the only one who thinks this thread is pointless? cos no matter what side of the fence you sit on,peeps are going to carry on argueing over shit they can't 100% prove either way and still think they are right (or untill anyone in power comes out and admits something,be it refs or FA),it just seems like a pointless excersie to me lol
You could say that about any other thread though really couldn´t you? Jordan Henderson, he´s crap can´t pass forward vs he´s great he´s doing what he´s been asked to do for example.
 

Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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Post was for Quicksand....i.e who I responded to; and I never stated it was easy.

To humour the second part of your post to a point:

To state my position based on the thread topic heading:

Do I believe there is a conspiracy at multiple levels of the FA, referee's and others connected with the governing bodies against Liverpool - NO

  • at various times people who have been associated with Liverpool have been involved in these bodies - would they speak up about it?
  • What do each of these individuals involved in this conspiracy have to gain.............and would it be worth it - highly doubtful
  • The level of corruption required to achieve this logically doesn't warrant any potential gain.....i.e financial enrichment or other
Do I believe Bias occurs against Liverpool specifically to the detriment of them over other clubs: In certain contexts it is cetainly possible

This is really the rabbit warren of the debate.......the problem being; there are so many forms of bias and they occur on so many different levels and in so many ways to show a trend across a large number of people is hugely difficult - but to try and summarise I would say the following:

  • It would be hard to conlude on any evidence shown that typical forms of bias occurs on a conscious level en masse across any of the bodies mentioned above - i.e is there some sort of plot against Liverpool - no
  • However you could probably find that through analysis some people involved in FA, referees etc may hold some bias towards LFC conscious or otherwise through normally idientified forms , e.g Confirmation bias, or anchoring.
    • (Sidenote)Anchoring in relation to referees could be hugely interesting in that it relies on making a decision based on the first pieces of information when making a decision.....i.e lets say when a referee is coached - if they are taught that certiain body positions of players when tackling are dangerous or foul worthy - they are likely to keep awarding fouls for them........ regardless of context and if they, made contact or were fouls.......a bias has been formed without realising it - the fun part of this is it could have actually been trained:). Where it would become even more interesting is if over time this teaching changed......you would probably then get inconsistency on any future decision making in these situations..........based on the fact that each referee would have their own intepretation and level of agreement on said changes........another bias:)
  • It should be noted that with the above it could just as easily be that someone has the same bias towards another club.........
Do Liverpool suffer from Dumb Luck
  • yes both in the positive and the negative, as do other clubs from time to time
Finally Why do Liverpool get shit decisions:
  • Put simply the perception of any decision correct or incorrect is subject to bias, from all those interpreting. In a game with two sides at any point in time one group is likely to applaud a decision while the other vilify it.......it's what makes sport so interesting.
  • From a base perspective are we subject to bad decisions at times - yes we are, and again other teams are also subject to these 'shit decisions'.
  • Are referees in game potentially making shit decisions on purpose - on the whole I don;t think they are consciouly but see above, they would be subject to some sort of bias - However in most cases the reason for it may not be "I am doing this against Liverpool"
In conclusion:

Bias on some levels in small sample sizes could be proven to be more than probable with relation to decisions towards Liverpool as a football club. However is it to the level that some are suggesting here - highly unlikley and for some it may be there own bias that is driving the belief that it exists.

Am I going to wade through the statistical evidence over decades to try and reach a conclusion - no. I have better things to do with my life; and the reality is no clear conclusion would be reached. That's the problem with a hypothesis it can never be proven completely. There are those that wouldn't want to see it wouldn't anyway. Kind of ironic when you look at the thread topic really:)

As I stated in the previous post; those that believe it to be so, are welcome to their opinion.
The problem with bias is it exists on a spectrum and is subjective........... so going back to my previous statement:

Just remember it doesn't make those that don't agree with you wrong........and to be fair and level it doesn't make them right either.......
Yes but you are just giving your opinion based on basically your opinion. At least the Pro Bias posters (Sorry Mascot 88) have given circumstancial evidence figures/own experiences etc upon which we have based our opinions.
 

Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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Yes, that’s it. Let’s divide the forum into opposing tribes, and we can all entrench ourselves in our views. Let’s strip out all night the nuance and detail out of each other’s opinions and straw man the fuck out of each other. That always makes the forum so more fun :rolleyes:
Bit dramatic. Is it the time of the month?

So I´m still waiting for all this nuance and detail from all the other posters whatever camp they fall into but not the there is defo bias camp. As I said all we got so far is; doesn´t prove anything, come back with more evidence, going back 10 years isn´t enough etc etc but not actually any counter argument.
For example: Why did Bob Paisley not get a knighthood? Answer - He didn´t want one, He died before he could be given one, he refused one. Yeah and I´m straw manning everyone.

SMH.
 



Spitfire

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Yes but you are just giving your opinion based on basically your opinion. At least the Pro Bias posters (Sorry Mascot 88) have given circumstancial evidence figures/own experiences etc upon which we have based our opinions.
Yep I have stated my opinion - just as they have......I've also acknolwedged that bias may exist on some levels........which in part supports some of thier claims.

It would seem that because I am questioning their overall methodology that you are painting me to be someone that doesn't believe that bias exists.....that is not the case. I'd do the same to the anti as well because really I'm not in either camp as my post above expalins........and of which you have largely ignored.

If I'm honest I sit in the @cynicaloldgit camp if anything:)


Edit: In the interest of fun however if you are curious to look at some 'evidence' check out the three articles below:


http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2018/02/are-referees-biased-against-certain-teams-in-the-english-premier-league/

also related to the article above which would suggest that the bias isn't targeted at Liverpool - but Arsenal:)

https://positivelyarsenal.com/2018/01/05/the-pgmol-vs-arsenal-data-shows-a-clear-pattern-of-bias/

Similar to the data provided by your bretheren you could question it on a number of levels based on the selected criteria it uses however;

I'll let you reach your own conclusions.......
 
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Kenny Dalglish LFC Legend

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Yep I have stated my opinion - just as they have......I've also acknolwedged that bias may exist on some levels........which in part supports some of thier claims.

It would seem that because I am questioning their overall methodology that you are painting me to be someone that doesn't believe that bias exists.....that is not the case. I'd do the same to the anti as well because really I'm not in either camp as my post above expalins........and of which you have largely ignored.

If I'm honest I sit in the @cynicaloldgit camp if anything:)


Edit: In the interest of fun however if you are curious to look at some 'evidence' check out the three articles below:


http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2018/02/are-referees-biased-against-certain-teams-in-the-english-premier-league/

also related to the article above which would suggest that the bias isn't targeted at Liverpool - but Arsenal:)

https://positivelyarsenal.com/2018/01/05/the-pgmol-vs-arsenal-data-shows-a-clear-pattern-of-bias/

Similar to the data provided by your bretheren you could question it on a number of levels based on the selected criteria it uses however;

I'll let you reach your own conclusions.......
I don't think any of us are stupid enough to think it's cast iron irrefutable proof that we've posted (that's why I called it Circumstantial evidence) but it's at the least interesting. I mean I haven't seen anyone come up with anything like a reasonable explanation other than "it doesn't prove anything".

Hope even said he couldn't explain it away.
I haven't read those articles. It's late and I'm off to bobies but I'll read them tomorrow in the interests of fair play.
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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I think one thing that's missing in this thread is discussions about how bias COULD have been created and developed to hamper other teams.

Earlier in the thread I've covered why I believe a unique level of bias exists against Liverpool and LFC (in many many many posts).

For those that believe there is equal bias for others could you provide reasons?

In a situation when you have no concrete proof you need to try and make a decision based on the most likely outcome based on the balance of probability.

The unique situations that could have created both conscious and unconscious bias in the minds of decision makers against LFC and the people of Liverpool are extensive. It provides a reason as to how.

There is then a motive established by that for, unintentional, unfair decision making.

I'm still waiting for reasons why anyone else thinks the same, or even anywhere near the same, level of negative feeling can exist against any other club?
 



Anfield rd Dreamer

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Yep I have stated my opinion - just as they have......I've also acknolwedged that bias may exist on some levels........which in part supports some of thier claims.

It would seem that because I am questioning their overall methodology that you are painting me to be someone that doesn't believe that bias exists.....that is not the case. I'd do the same to the anti as well because really I'm not in either camp as my post above expalins........and of which you have largely ignored.

If I'm honest I sit in the @cynicaloldgit camp if anything:)


Edit: In the interest of fun however if you are curious to look at some 'evidence' check out the three articles below:


http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2018/02/are-referees-biased-against-certain-teams-in-the-english-premier-league/

also related to the article above which would suggest that the bias isn't targeted at Liverpool - but Arsenal:)

https://positivelyarsenal.com/2018/01/05/the-pgmol-vs-arsenal-data-shows-a-clear-pattern-of-bias/

Similar to the data provided by your bretheren you could question it on a number of levels based on the selected criteria it uses however;

I'll let you reach your own conclusions.......
None of those articles explore the decisions given to see if incorrect decisions negatively or positively effect games. They are looking at averages and trying to draw conclusions.
 

lfc.eddie

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I think one thing that's missing in this thread is discussions about how bias COULD have been created and developed to hamper other teams.

Earlier in the thread I've covered why I believe a unique level of bias exists against Liverpool and LFC (in many many many posts).

For those that believe there is equal bias for others could you provide reasons?

In a situation when you have no concrete proof you need to try and make a decision based on the most likely outcome based on the balance of probability.

The unique situations that could have created both conscious and unconscious bias in the minds of decision makers against LFC and the people of Liverpool are extensive. It provides a reason as to how.

There is then a motive established by that for, unintentional, unfair decision making.

I'm still waiting for reasons why anyone else thinks the same, or even anywhere near the same, level of negative feeling can exist against any other club?
Subconscious bias exists. Proven many times, even addressed by Dean Saunders and Jamie Carragher in his MNF banter with Neville. I think I posted it in United's thread and @Dane posted the tweet above. Just had a listen to what Carragher said at the end, although may sound like a joke, but it's there.
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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Subconscious bias exists. Proven many times, even addressed by Dean Saunders and Jamie Carragher in his MNF banter with Neville. I think I posted it in United's thread and @Dane posted the tweet above. Just had a listen to what Carragher said at the end, although may sound like a joke, but it's there.
I don't know how anyone in the UK can believe anything other than there being a bias against LFC.
 

Dane

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I don't know how anyone in the UK can believe anything other than there being a bias against LFC.
If we finish on 97 points, but 2nd in the league, I'll be fucking fizzing when thinking about the Harry Maguire and Vincent Kompany incidents alone.
That's not even taking into account the comedy show of refereeing in the City v Watford game for example.
The Maguire and Kompany examples alone is a potential swing of 5 points.

What staggers me most is the nonchalance shown by many of our own fans towards it.
 

Mascot88

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Propaganda from Neville, hoping to plant a seed in OGS's mind.
Or he’s just saying what he thinks as a pundit/trying to be controversial.

He player with Ole for years. I’m sure there are more effective ways to plant seeds. Like phoning him.

Jesus Christ.
 



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