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Hatem Ben Arfa (AM) Newcastle

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TFC

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Zinedine Biscan said:
Sorry mate, I just don't think at the end of the day they'll be any more keen to lose him than we were to lose Torres at the height of his injury problems... as frustrating as it is to see your best players sitting on the sidelines, you still want to keep them.

And his injury record, which had been poor for a couple of years didn't stop us holding out for £50m, nor keep Chelsea from paying it.
Thats a good point, although its a big questionable comparing the two of them. Arfa has had 173 appearances since 04/05 compared to Torres 325 appearances since 04/05. Torres had established himself as one of the best strikers in the world, whereas Arfa still has a lot to prove.

Torres's 'height' of injury problems was only 2 back to back seasons of playing 24 and 22 matches. Prior to that he had played at least 30 matches for almost 7 straight years, and when Chelsea bought him he had already appeared 23 times for us before the January window. If you look at his career from 2001-2013 Torres has only had 2 seasons where played less than 25 league In his entire career Arfa has only had 4 seasons where he's played more than 25 league matches.

I just don't see the comparison.
 


Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Thats a good point, although its a big questionable comparing the two of them. Arfa has had 173 appearances since 04/05 compared to Torres 325 appearances since 04/05. Torres had established himself as one of the best strikers in the world, whereas Arfa still has a lot to prove.

Torres's 'height' of injury problems was only 2 back to back seasons of playing 24 and 22 matches. Prior to that he had played at least 30 matches for almost 7 straight years, and when Chelsea bought him he had already appeared 23 times for us before the January window. If you look at his career from 2001-2013 Torres has only had 2 seasons where played less than 25 league In his entire career Arfa has only had 4 seasons where he's played more than 25 league matches.

I just don't see the comparison.
Several bad injuries and operations in there, though, all in the same part of the body (hamstrings etc). With him it wasn't so much number of games, but even a cursory scouting session could have seen he'd lost a load of his pace, which had helped make him such a potent weapon. Yet, in the end, that didn't even seem to form any part of our high valuation of the price Chelsea were willing to pay.

Chelsea have got a good number of games out of him, it's true. But I still wonder if they're satisfied they got a good deal.
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
Several bad injuries and operations in there, though, all in the same part of the body (hamstrings etc). With him it wasn't so much number of games, but even a cursory scouting session could have seen he'd lost a load of his pace, which had helped make him such a potent weapon. Yet, in the end, that didn't even seem to form any part of our high valuation of the price Chelsea were willing to pay.

Chelsea have got a good number of games out of him, it's true. But I still wonder if they're satisfied they got a good deal.
Ok you are right. Torres playing less than 25 matches only twice in his career, is the same as Arfa only playing more than 25 four seasons in his career.

You understand that being injury prone is a negative thing, but no football professionals would ever take it into consideration.
 

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TFC said:
You understand that being injury prone is a negative thing, but no football professionals would ever take it into consideration.
Eh? How do you explain all the clubs that passed on Demba Ba?
 



TFC

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sozioökonomische- said:
Eh? How do you explain all the clubs that passed on Demba Ba
Should probably read the rest of the conversation...
 

schmee

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TFC said:
Thats some of the worst logic I've ever heard schmee. They simply wouldn't do it, just because? If he's a player who only plays 50% of their matches, then they would value him less than they would if he played 100% of their matches. Its just common sense.
Either you're taking the piss, you've conviently forgotten our dealings with Newcastle in the past or you're the most niave person i've ever met.

There is no chance in hell of Newcastle getting rid of a player, that they have repeatedly stated they want to keep, on the cheap.

It might seem like common sense to a buyer but then you're completely ignoring the seller's wishes.
 

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schmee said:
Either you're taking the piss, you've conviently forgotten our dealings with Newcastle in the past or you're the most niave person i've ever met.

There is no chance in hell of Newcastle getting rid of a player, that they have repeatedly stated they want to keep, on the cheap.

It might seem like common sense to a buyer but then you're completely ignoring the seller's wishes.
So you think that a team would value a player who plays every match of the season, the same as a player who doesn't? And I'm naive? Interesting to say the least.
 

schmee

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TFC said:
So you think that a team would value a player who plays every match of the season, the same as a player who doesn't? And I'm naive? Interesting to say the least.
If you think that Newcastle are going to lower their price demands as he doesn't play as much as we'd want him to then i'd say you are.

You need to stop looking at this from the viewpoint of a buying club. Newcastle don't want to lose him therefore if we want to buy him we'll have to pay a premium. They won't think that they should sell any player that they want to keep at a reduced rate, no matter what the circumstances.

If Newcastle wanted to get rid of him then we would have some leverage due to his injury record byt the fact remains that if we try to sign him we'll be attempting to buy a player from a club that has no desire to see him leave.
 

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I'll take a straight swap for Jay Spearing. Otherwise, no thanks.






Edit: I realize I'm starting to sound like a broken record on this one. I'll stop commenting in here.
 



TFC

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schmee said:
If you think that Newcastle are going to lower their price demands as he doesn't play as much as we'd want him to then i'd say you are.

You need to stop looking at this from the viewpoint of a buying club. Newcastle don't want to lose him therefore if we want to buy him we'll have to pay a premium. They won't think that they should sell any player that they want to keep at a reduced rate, no matter what the circumstances.

If Newcastle wanted to get rid of him then we would have some leverage due to his injury record byt the fact remains that if we try to sign him we'll be attempting to buy a player from a club that has no desire to see him leave.
They would value him less than they would if he was a healthy. Thats all I've been saying this whole time.

I'm not looking at it from the viewpoint of the buying club. Newcastles view is they have to buy a player who can play while Arfa's injured, therefore Arfa is worth less to them than he would be if he could play his position for a full season.

Let me try another approach:

If Enrique was injured 50% of our matches since we signed him, would we value him the same as we currently value him? Do you really think that we wouldn't value him less because he only plays half of the matches in a season? Don't you think we would have to buy a new LB, because we couldn't rely on Enrique? Don't you think that if we already have to buy a new player to play his position, that we would value Enrique less?

I don't understand what makes you think that Newcastle would value an injury prone Arfa as much as they would an injury free Arfa.
 

schmee

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OK. Let me ask you this. What do you think his price is?

And then what do you think Newcastle will ask for? What i'm saying is they won't be selling him for what he's worth. They don't want rid of him and so if they do consider selling him they'll be asking for a price that is well above his actual worth.

Say he's worth £20 mill but that his injuries make his worth £10 mill (basic i know but anyway....). If we go to Newcastle and offer the £10 mill that we consider is the market price do you think they'd accept?

They wouldn't for the simple reason that they do not want to sell him. Therefor for us to purchase him we'll have to go above what the market price for an injury prone Ben Arfa. Ane knowing Newcastle and that prick Pardew and how our negotiations in the past have gone with them we'll have to go well above the market price.

Of course if Ben Arfa makes enough noises that he wants to go (ala Enrique) then we might have a bit more power in the negoatiating sense but as it is he hasn't. We're approaching them and trying toi persuade them to sell a commodity that they wish to keep. Unfortunately in thast situation the buyer has to pay above the market worth for that.
 

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schmee said:
OK. Let me ask you this. What do you think his price is?

And then what do you think Newcastle will ask for? What i'm saying is they won't be selling him for what he's worth. They don't want rid of him and so if they do consider selling him they'll be asking for a price that is well above his actual worth.

Say he's worth £20 mill but that his injuries make his worth £10 mill (basic i know but anyway....). If we go to Newcastle and offer the £10 mill that we consider is the market price do you think they'd accept?

They wouldn't for the simple reason that they do not want to sell him. Therefor for us to purchase him we'll have to go above what the market price for an injury prone Ben Arfa. Ane knowing Newcastle and that prick Pardew and how our negotiations in the past have gone with them we'll have to go well above the market price.

Of course if Ben Arfa makes enough noises that he wants to go (ala Enrique) then we might have a bit more power in the negoatiating sense but as it is he hasn't. We're approaching them and trying toi persuade them to sell a commodity that they wish to keep. Unfortunately in thast situation the buyer has to pay above the market worth for that.
The bolded portion is exactly the point I've been trying to make.

Every player has his price. Even if Newcastle doesn't want to sell at 10mp, the price they are willing to sell at will be lower than the price they would be willing to sell at if he was a healthy player. Thats it. If they force the issue and try to get 15mp for him, thats still lower than what he would have been worth had he been healthy. Even if they go above the market value, they'll be still under the value he would have had if he had no health issue.

Onto the rest of your points - Thats just your opinion that Newcastle wouldn't sell him. I'm of a different opinion. If a team battling for relegation is happy relying on a player who can only play 50% of matches, and feels no need to find a player who can contribute for a whole season - then they deserve relegation.

No matter how much cash the owners have, the amount they can spend is limited by FFP, so to improve the squad they need to raise funds from somewhere, and an injury prone player is a good place to start. Maybe they'll be forced to part with some of their other players, Sissoko/Cabaya/Tiote could raise some funds. Maybe you are right and they'll hold onto Arfa for dear life, but his injuries played a big part as to why they are in the position they are in this season. He only has 2 years left on his contract, so I think they'll be considering offers, and they'll be willing to part with him for less than they would if he never had injury issues.

Edit: I didn't answer your question. Sorry. I think he's currently worth somewhere in the 10-13mp range, but I wouldn't pay more than 10mp. Even at that price its a big risk. I think that Newcastle would accept 10-15mp. I think if he never was injured he would be worth 20-25mp, and Newcastle would want 30mp for him - because he'd be an absolutely vital piece of their team. Instead he's someone they can't count on.

Edit 2: On the flip side - What do you think Newcastle value Arfa at right now? And what do you think Newcastle would value him if he was healthy these past few seasons?
 

Zinedine Biscan

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Perhaps the reason we're not agreeing on this issue is that I don't think Ben Arfa is consistent enough to sit in that £25m bracket... that's the same as we paid for Suarez and Torres, the former having just scored nearly 50 goals in the previous season. He was a bit discounted because of the ban, but not much.

I'd say Ben Arfa is a £10-£15m player, which I think is the amount they'd sell him for regardless of injuries. I don't think playing more games than he does would make him any more consistent or produce proportionally more goals and assists - his stats for both per games played isn't terribly impressive.

And really, it's goals and assists we need to add to our squad anyway.
 



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Zinedine Biscan said:
Perhaps the reason we're not agreeing on this issue is that I don't think Ben Arfa is consistent enough to sit in that £25m bracket... that's the same as we paid for Suarez and Torres, the former having just scored nearly 50 goals in the previous season. He was a bit discounted because of the ban, but not much.

I'd say Ben Arfa is a £10-£15m player, which I think is the amount they'd sell him for regardless of injuries. I don't think playing more games than he does would make him any more consistent or produce proportionally more goals and assists - his stats for both per games played isn't terribly impressive.

And really, it's goals and assists we need to add to our squad anyway.
25mp is just 5mp more than what we paid for Downing. 10-15mp is the range that Zaha, Ox-Chamberlain were in.

I think for a player to be consistent, they need to play consistently. Its not really a surprise that a player who's injured half of each season struggles for consistency, and if he was healthy I really do think that he would produce more and be more consistent.
 

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TFC said:
25mp is just 5mp more than what we paid for Downing. 10-15mp is the range that Zaha, Ox-Chamberlain were in.

I think for a player to be consistent, they need to play consistently. Its not really a surprise that a player who's injured half of each season struggles for consistency, and if he was healthy I really do think that he would produce more and be more consistent.
He had three consecutive seasons in France playing nearly 50 games in each, and his numbers (in a weaker league) still weren't all that impressive.

Downing was just us once again moronically paying twice market value, you might as well use £35m Carroll as a benchmark for what players are worth... Suarez would come in at around £200m.
 

schmee

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I would think we'd be lucky to get him from Newcastle for £15 mill. I think if we try to purchase him they'll take us to the cleaners again. I'm not going to link a quote from Pardew saying that Ben Arfa is his Kevin Keegan because the quote was given to a paper that I refuse to go onto a web page of.

However the fact that he's said that and has stated that he does not want him to go (google it you'll find the links) is what gives me "my opinion" that he doesn't want to lose him.

If he was fit i'd rate him around the £20 mill mark, a price that we'll be pushing (in my opinion) if we do try for him. Now going back to my original post that you slated paying that money for someone who can play 16 games a season is a fucking nonsense. Even the £10 - 15 mill that you suggest Newcastle will accept should never be paid for someone who will miss over half the season.

Why would we ever go down that route again of buying a player with an awful injury record and hoping that we get lucky with them? If we do go and try to purchase him for that sort of money and he's injured for half the season this place would go mental because we knew the risks before signing him yet wasted £10 - 15 mill on him anyway.
 

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schmee said:
I would think we'd be lucky to get him from Newcastle for £15 mill. I think if we try to purchase him they'll take us to the cleaners again. I'm not going to link a quote from Pardew saying that Ben Arfa is his Kevin Keegan because the quote was given to a paper that I refuse to go onto a web page of.

However the fact that he's said that and has stated that he does not want him to go (google it you'll find the links) is what gives me "my opinion" that he doesn't want to lose him.

If he was fit i'd rate him around the £20 mill mark, a price that we'll be pushing (in my opinion) if we do try for him. Now going back to my original post that you slated paying that money for someone who can play 16 games a season is a fucking nonsense. Even the £10 - 15 mill that you suggest Newcastle will accept should never be paid for someone who will miss over half the season.

Why would we ever go down that route again of buying a player with an awful injury record and hoping that we get lucky with them? If we do go and try to purchase him for that sort of money and he's injured for half the season this place would go mental because we knew the risks before signing him yet wasted £10 - 15 mill on him anyway.
You said that his injuries wouldn't play into his valuation. Thats what I responded to. Even the 10-15mp that I suggested Newcastle would accept, I said is a price I wouldn't pay.

Again I find it odd that you think that he's not worth the risk (valid opinion) yet think that Newcastle would never want to sell him and we'd be lucky if they were willing to let him go at 15mp.

Its just a bit odd that on one hand you yourself point out the reasons why a team wouldn't/shouldn't value him because of his injury history, yet you also are saying that his team finds him very valuable despite his injury history.
 

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TFC said:
25mp is just 5mp more than what we paid for Downing. 10-15mp is the range that Zaha, Ox-Chamberlain were in.

I think for a player to be consistent, they need to play consistently. Its not really a surprise that a player who's injured half of each season struggles for consistency, and if he was healthy I really do think that he would produce more and be more consistent.
I would take Oxlade-Chamblerain over Ben Arfa, any time.

The one thing that makes me wonder about Ben Arfa, assuming an attractive price, is Gerrard's season. A year ago, I would have steered well clear of any player with anything like an injury history, our medical and physical training staff did not seem up to par. In fact, going into this season, I predicted we would see at most 30 games total from Gerrard. But something has clearly changed, and if there is a growing confidence in the core competence of the club's medical/training professionals, perhaps a troubled player like Ben Arfa would be a reasonable gambe - at the right price.
 
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TFC

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Zinedine Biscan said:
He had three consecutive seasons in France playing nearly 50 games in each, and his numbers (in a weaker league) still weren't all that impressive.

Downing was just us once again moronically paying twice market value, you might as well use £35m Carroll as a benchmark for what players are worth... Suarez would come in at around £200m.
Downing, Ox Chamb, Zaha - all players who are wingers who play in England, I wasn't trying to compare apples to oranges. I know that its fun to be obtuse for no reason, but c'mon man.

Also Downings fair market value at the time was around 15mp, not 10mp.
 

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TFC said:
Downing, Ox Chamb, Zaha - all players who are wingers who play in England, I wasn't trying to compare apples to oranges. I know that its fun to be obtuse for no reason, but c'mon man.

Also Downings fair market value at the time was around 15mp, not 10mp.
I was watching Masterchef while posting, so didn't read your post in great detail. To Zaha and Ox, I would say that the key difference with Ben Arfa is nationality, English players are ridiculously overpriced. When £8.5m can buy you Coutinho and Zaha costs nearly double that, it shows the madness of the market. Include Downing in there as well.

You might be right that his Englishness made Downing worth £15m at the time we signed him, however the same doesn't apply to Ben Arfa.
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
I was watching Masterchef while posting, so didn't read your post in great detail. To Zaha and Ox, I would say that the key difference with Ben Arfa is nationality, English players are ridiculously overpriced. When £8.5m can buy you Coutinho and Zaha costs nearly double that, it shows the madness of the market. Include Downing in there as well.

You might be right that his Englishness made Downing worth £15m at the time we signed him, however the same doesn't apply to Ben Arfa.
Again, I agree completely with you. Arfa would not gain any additional value because he has experience playing in England, just like his injuries would not cause any decrease in his value because those who work at football clubs don't use logic. You are completely right, so lets just move on.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Again, I agree completely with you. Arfa would not gain any additional value because he has experience playing in England, just like his injuries would not cause any decrease in his value because those who work at football clubs don't use logic. You are completely right, so lets just move on.
I think you're taking what I'm treating as a bit of good-natured debate a wee bit more seriously than I am, so I think I'll leave it alone now.

But I'll just add that foreign players with experience of playing in England doesn't affect price in the same way that actually being English does. Look at what we bought Enrique for and compare it to what Baines would go for this summer. Baines is a better player just about, but not that much better.
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
I think you're taking what I'm treating as a bit of good-natured debate a wee bit more seriously than I am, so I think I'll leave it alone now.

But I'll just add that foreign players with experience of playing in England doesn't affect price in the same way that actually being English does. Look at what we bought Enrique for and compare it to what Baines would go for this summer. Baines is a better player just about, but not that much better.
Not taking it seriously mate, just finding it incredibly pointless. When it gets to the point that the person you are debating with stopped making any real points but keeps on going - then its just boring and a waste of time.
 



Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Not taking it seriously mate, just finding it incredibly pointless. When it gets to the point that the person you are debating with stopped making any real points but keeps on going - then its just boring and a waste of time.
Funny, but I could have said the same thing.

What I will say is that even if you are 100% correct and that fitness problems halve the price a selling club would demand for a player they want to keep, and even if despite being French-Moroccan his experience of playing in England would inflate his value to the same degree as being of English nationality... we'd still be signing a player who rarely scores, rarely assists and is fit for less than half a season at a time. You can't think of better ways to spend £15m?
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
Funny, but I could have said the same thing.

What I will say is that even if you are 100% correct and that fitness problems halve the price a selling club would demand for a player they want to keep, and even if despite being French-Moroccan his experience of playing in England would inflate his value to the same degree as being of English nationality... we'd still be signing a player who rarely scores, rarely assists and is fit for less than half a season at a time. You can't think of better ways to spend £15m?
Sigh.

You see what I mean? Its like talking to a wall. I clearly said that I wouldn't pay more than 10mp, and even at that price its a risk. So of course I think we can find better ways of spending 15mp.

So pointless even pressing the reply button. lol
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Sigh.

You see what I mean? Its like talking to a wall. I clearly said that I wouldn't pay more than 10mp, and even at that price its a risk. So of course I think we can find better ways of spending 15mp.

So pointless even pressing the reply button. lol
£10m then, a difference of £5m doesn't alter the argument. I'd still pass him up if he was a free transfer, we've just been there, done that so many times before and I wouldn't want us to do it again. Fee or no fee, he'd still eat up a massive chunk of the wage bill that could be used for more productive, consistent and reliable players.

£10m and £60k p/w at the bare minimum (you could almost double that if he came on a free) are big amounts of money for us atm, certainly too big to chuck on a gamble that probably won't pay off.

For the record, as we seem to be airing more general frustrations here, I think I've been overly patient with someone who exclusively focuses on very minor parts of an argument ignoring the wider point someone is trying to make. It comes across as evasion, honestly.
 

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You can think whatever you want bud. I haven't evaded anything. Its just frustrating having a discussion with someone who clearly just wants to state his opinion without actually reading what the other person has written, such as you have been doing. It makes it pointless and rather boring. Perhaps if you took more time to actually read what was being written, it wouldn't come across as evasion.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
You can think whatever you want bud. I haven't evaded anything. Its just frustrating having a discussion with someone who clearly just wants to state his opinion without actually reading what the other person has written, such as you have been doing. It makes it pointless and rather boring. Perhaps if you took more time to actually read what was being written, it wouldn't come across as evasion.
I think you saying that is pretty ironic considering how you have conducted yourself in this debate, but whatever.

It's done.
 



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