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Hatem Ben Arfa (AM) Newcastle

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DEVGRU

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Speckydodge said:
Had numerous spells out with Newcastle , some unlucky it must be said but he's been injured more then available . Had a bad injury record at Marseille also.
Thanks for clarifying..appreciate it. Had my doubts about him but the last thing we need is bringing in a top player who is going to spend more time out injured than actually playing...
 


No Men in the Box Redux

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RedLaw said:
If Ben Arfa didn't have any injury problems he'd be linked with every Champions League club under the sun. The fact there are question marks over his fitness means they're not interested, which gives us a decent chance of signing him.

As a club who will more than likely not even get into Europe next season, we're in a position where we're going to have to take calculated risks to get back where we want to be. If we could get in a player of his quality, perhaps solve some of his fitness issues and play him for a good number of games over the next few seasons then we'd only benefit from that.
Maybe. I think that is the optimistic way of looking at things. I do agree he's a hell of a player on his day. Left-footed, tricky, and assertive. We could do with a player like that. And I think most if not all fans would love to see a player like a healthy Ben Arfa in our squad.

But on the other end of the spectrum, we could very well be wasting a decent 10m pounds+ and pretty considerable wages for a player that might not be able to start 15 games a season. Harry Kewell mark II. A long history of recurring injury problems like his is not something that you can usually just fix and manage easily. It could very well be a chronic issue that is just part of his body. Perhaps if Newcastle got relegated, then Ben Arfa would try to force a transfer through and that might help lower the transfer fee but otherwise, I don't believe Newcastle would let him go for much cheaper than 10m pounds. Their manager and fans seem to rate him.

Regardless, I think its pretty safe to say that this most likely won't happen. FSG's track record suggests that they will probably view Ben Arfa's history as an indicator that this transfer is too unbalanced in the risk-reward ratio.
 

Urban Achiever

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He's a really gifted player, but unless BR really, really, really want him I think he's way too much of a gamble. We don't need those yo-yo players coming in and out of that "top-form, injury, rehabilitation training"-circle. It's demotivating and frustrating for teammates, club and fans. Simply just not worth it, as it takes the odd 1 in 30 (like Agger) to suddenly become consistent.

I'd love to see a fit Ben Arfa with us but I'm not thrilled with the odd's of it happening in reality.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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Because of his fitness problems, he'd be a massive gamble as a free signing (like Cole or Degen)... as an expensive signing he has the potential to be a catastrophic one.

We simply don't have a level of wealth where we can spend seven-figure sums on gambles on players who in their careers have spent half their time out injured and the other half working back to fitness.
 



schmee

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TFC said:
I'm a bit confused as to why you guys think that his injury history wouldn't be a factor in his valuation.

Also its pretty crazy to think that you could get a healthy version of Arfa for the same amount. If it was really that simple/easy then every team in the league would be trying to buy the hypothetical healthy version of Arfa who's costs the same as the injury prone Arfa and is just as good.
His injury problems will play no part at all in his valuation.

Newcastle aren't going to think "well he's injured a lot so let's allow him to go on the cheap".

They simply wouldn't do it. If we buy him we'll end up getting shafted buying a player who has a 50/50 chance of missing half of each season through injury.
 

TFC

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schmee said:
His injury problems will play no part at all in his valuation.

Newcastle aren't going to think "well he's injured a lot so let's allow him to go on the cheap".

They simply wouldn't do it. If we buy him we'll end up getting shafted buying a player who has a 50/50 chance of missing half of each season through injury.
Thats some of the worst logic I've ever heard schmee. They simply wouldn't do it, just because? If he's a player who only plays 50% of their matches, then they would value him less than they would if he played 100% of their matches. Its just common sense.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Thats some of the worst logic I've ever heard schmee. They simply wouldn't do it, just because? If he's a player who only plays 50% of their matches, then they would value him less than they would if he played 100% of their matches. Its just common sense.
How much did we pay for Aquilani again?
 
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Le_hunt

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Lucas or Allen said:
We have the new Maradona =Coutinho.
Who needs Ben Arfa.


Let us get a defender of top quality that has to be out target.
agreed. from Lyon to Newcastle, he's inconsistency embodied, let alone prone to injuries.

we already have Couthino, why Ben Arfa now ? if we ever were after him at some point (our first links with him were raised a good 3 years ago), Spurs can steal him from under our nose for all I care. well, if they did not learn something from doing so last summer.
 

TFC

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Zinedine Biscan said:
How much did we pay for Aquilani again?
We had a habit of overpaying for players.


Do you honestly think that if we had a player who was only healthy for 50% of the matches in a season, thereby forcing us to find another player who can play the same position as him - that we would still value the player who played 50% as much as we would have if he wasn't injury prone and we could rely on him without having to find someone (we would also have to pay) else who can also play his position?
 

Nikola

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We do need at least two more creative players in our squad, in all honesty, one in the centre and one on the right. When Coutinho and Gerrard are out (and now Gerrard doesn't have the legs that can take him forward, dribble past people and send probing passes from advanced positions like Coutinho does), whom do we have who can actually create clear-cut opportunities for our players? No one.

I'm not saying that Ben Arfa is the answer - even though I like his style of play when he's fit - but these are two positions that need strengthening with creative, fast and skillful players. I'd take a gamble on Ben Arfa if he was available on cheap and use the rest of the money to strengthen the midfield.
 

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Nikola13 said:
We do need at least two more creative players in our squad, in all honesty, one in the centre and one on the right. When Coutinho and Gerrard are out (and now Gerrard doesn't have the legs that can take him forward, dribble past people and send probing passes from advanced positions like Coutinho does), whom do we have who can actually create clear-cut opportunities for our players? No one.

I'm not saying that Ben Arfa is the answer - even though I like his style of play when he's fit - but these are two positions that need strengthening with creative, fast and skillful players. I'd take a gamble on Ben Arfa if he was available on cheap and use the rest of the money to strengthen the midfield.
Thats it for me as well. All depends on the price, because its a gamble without a doubt. Whether its worth the risk all comes down to the price.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
We had a habit of overpaying for players.


Do you honestly think that if we had a player who was only healthy for 50% of the matches in a season, thereby forcing us to find another player who can play the same position as him - that we would still value the player who played 50% as much as we would have if he wasn't injury prone and we could rely on him without having to find someone (we would also have to pay) else who can also play his position?
With our track record honestly nothing would surprise me, it doesn't mean that other teams would act that way however, particularly one that somehow managed to get in £35m for a £10m player...
 



OhYaBeauty

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Nikola13 said:
We do need at least two more creative players in our squad, in all honesty, one in the centre and one on the right. When Coutinho and Gerrard are out (and now Gerrard doesn't have the legs that can take him forward, dribble past people and send probing passes from advanced positions like Coutinho does), whom do we have who can actually create clear-cut opportunities for our players?
Well there's that Suarez guy...
 

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OhYaBeauty said:
Well there's that Suarez guy...
He won't play wide and I doubt that he will play as no. 10 for us if we get a new no. 10. It's happened before that he was bereft of chances and of possession because of ineptness of the trio behind him.
 

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Nikola13 said:
He won't play wide and I doubt that he will play as no. 10 for us if we get a new no. 10. It's happened before that he was bereft of chances and of possession because of ineptness of the trio behind him.
I just saw that you said Coutinho and Gerrard were our only two real creative threats and took issue with that. Even as a number 9, Suarez is still far more creative than most number 10s in the Premiership.
 

Speckydodge

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Nikola13 said:
We do need at least two more creative players in our squad, in all honesty, one in the centre and one on the right. When Coutinho and Gerrard are out (and now Gerrard doesn't have the legs that can take him forward, dribble past people and send probing passes from advanced positions like Coutinho does), whom do we have who can actually create clear-cut opportunities for our players? No one.

I'm not saying that Ben Arfa is the answer - even though I like his style of play when he's fit - but these are two positions that need strengthening with creative, fast and skillful players. I'd take a gamble on Ben Arfa if he was available on cheap and use the rest of the money to strengthen the midfield.
Agree with this and I think most here do aswell , this whole thing would come down to the price. A fully fit Arfa is exactly what we need, but those thinking we'd get him for anything like 10m because he's not usually fully fit are IMO kidding themselves. This is mike Ashley and Newcastle we're talking about, they don't need the money and they don't want him gone. We were in a similar situation last season ourselves when a hugely talented but often injured player of ours was wanted by other clubs. However Aggers injury record didn't make us say sell him and cheaply at that, we all insisted we needed to keep him or at a min get 25m for him. Put yourselves in Newcastle's shoes and think would you sell him cheap , I think not.
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
With our track record honestly nothing would surprise me, it doesn't mean that other teams would act that way however, particularly one that somehow managed to get in £35m for a £10m player...
I understand where you are coming from. Thats more an issue with our piss poor negotiation team (which seems like it may have been fixed, hopefully it has) than with real player valuations. I'm just trying to say that a significant injury history does affect player valuations.
 



Speckydodge

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Alternatives to Ben Arfa??? For me I around the 10-13m range

-tadic
-dzsudzsak
-affelkay ( even cheaper but risky aswell )
-Salah from Basel
 

Nikola

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OhYaBeauty said:
I just saw that you said Coutinho and Gerrard were our only two real creative threats and took issue with that. Even as a number 9, Suarez is still far more creative than most number 10s in the Premiership.
Fully agreed there. It's just that I would like to see him stick to scoring goals and not being burdened by having to do it all by himself. Simple tap-ins would to it for me! :)
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
I understand where you are coming from. Thats more an issue with our piss poor negotiation team (which seems like it may have been fixed, hopefully it has) than with real player valuations. I'm just trying to say that a significant injury history does affect player valuations.
I guess one example that disproves this is Jonathan Woodgate, who mostly played numbers of games per season in the mid- to high-teens throughout his career due to continual injuries.

Despite this, he signed from Leeds to Newcastle for £9m, NUFC to Real Madrid for £13m+, RM to Boro for £7m, Boro to Spurs for £8m - big numbers for a CB in the early to mid noughties.

At least the madness ended then and when he left Spurs it was on a pay-as-you-play arrangement. Still, though.
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
I guess one example that disproves this is Jonathan Woodgate, who mostly played numbers of games per season in the mid- to high-teens throughout his career due to continual injuries.

Despite this, he signed from Leeds to Newcastle for £9m, NUFC to Real Madrid for £13m+, RM to Boro for £7m, Boro to Spurs for £8m - big numbers for a CB.

At least the madness ended then and when he left Spurs it was on a pay-as-you-play arrangement. Still, though.
You can give individual examples to prove or disprove most things. An injured teenage player is one that you can hope will overcome his injuries, but Ben Arfa is no spring chicken. To add to that, had the player you mentioned not been injury prone, perhaps he would have been sold for more than 9mp. No one was offering ManU 17mp for Owen Hargreaves after he signed with them and wasn't healthy for years. That doesn't prove my point, much like your single example doesn't prove yours. Sometimes its better to just use common sense.

Lets say you have a car, and it breaks down a lot. Would you value it as much as the same car that didn't break down often? Now if you had to buy a new car, because you need to have a car available to use, would you still value the problematic car as much even considering you had to buy a new car?

Do you think that Newcastle will be looking at their league table and think to themselves that they can afford the luxury of having a quality player who might or might not be healthy for important matches? Do you not think that they might be interested in finding a player who can contribute over a full season?
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
You can give individual examples to prove or disprove most things. An injured teenage player is one that you can hope will overcome his injuries, but Ben Arfa is no spring chicken. To add to that, had the player you mentioned not been injury prone, perhaps he would have been sold for more than 9mp. No one was offering ManU 17mp for Owen Hargreaves after he signed with them and wasn't healthy for years. That doesn't prove my point, much like your single example doesn't prove yours. Sometimes its better to just use common sense.

Lets say you have a car, and it breaks down a lot. Would you value it as much as the same car that didn't break down often? Now if you had to buy a new car, because you need to have a car available to use, would you still value the problematic car as much even considering you had to buy a new car?

Do you think that Newcastle will be looking at their league table and think to themselves that they can afford the luxury of having a quality player who might or might not be healthy for important matches? Do you not think that they might be interested in finding a player who can contribute over a full season?
When has logic ever played a part in football or its valuation of human beings who can kick a round leather object better than other human beings?

Rather than looking at what Newcastle might do, is it not a more pertinent question to ask why we would willingly put ourselves in the same situation they currently find themselves in with an injury prone player. I just can't fathom why that would be desirable. But if you do think it would be worthwhile buying such a player, then why wouldn't they think it was similarly worthwhile to keep hold of him?
 



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Zinedine Biscan said:
When has logic ever played a part in football or its valuation of human beings who can kick a round leather object better than other human beings?

Rather than looking at what Newcastle might do, is it not a more pertinent question to ask why we would willingly put ourselves in the same situation they currently find themselves in with an injury prone player. I just can't fathom why that would be desirable. But if you do think it would be worthwhile buying such a player, then why wouldn't they think it was similarly worthwhile to keep hold of him?
Logic plays a larger part in more things than you'd think. People aren't sitting there throwing darts at a board to make decisions, they actually consider various scenarios, pro's, con's, alternatives etc.. etc.. to come to a decision on a valuation. Some are better at it than others. If there is no thought process or logic involved, then there wouldn't be a general trend of better players costing more than mediocre players.

It'd be worthwhile if the price is right. It'd be a gamble regardless, so it comes down to price as others have said.

I think that our team, and Newcastles, are in very different positions. We have different needs, as well as different budgets.
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
Logic plays a larger part in more things than you'd think. People aren't sitting there throwing darts at a board to make decisions, they actually consider various scenarios, pro's, con's, alternatives etc.. etc.. to come to a decision on a valuation. Some are better at it than others. If there is no thought process or logic involved, then there wouldn't be a general trend of better players costing more than mediocre players.

It'd be worthwhile if the price is right. It'd be a gamble regardless, so it comes down to price as others have said.

I think that our team, and Newcastles, are in very different positions. We have different needs, as well as different budgets.
You do realise you're talking about Mike Ashley, who appointed Dennis Wise as director of football, and found his latest manager in a casino?
 

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Zinedine Biscan said:
You do realise you're talking about Mike Ashley, who appointed Dennis Wise as director of football, and found his latest manager in a casino?
He had more logic than we did when we bought Carroll.

Let me just get this straight one last time:
1) Arfa is very injury prone, therefore is not worth paying for. (Good point)
2) No one who works at any football club would ever realize that, so his valuation would stay as high as it would be if he was healthy all season long - because no one uses logic. (Now you lost me)
 

Zinedine Biscan

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TFC said:
He had more logic than we did when we bought Carroll.

Let me just get this straight one last time:
1) Arfa is very injury prone, therefore is not worth paying for. (Good point)
2) No one who works at any football club would ever realize that, so his valuation would stay as high as it would be if he was healthy all season long - because no one uses logic. (Now you lost me)
Sorry mate, I just don't think at the end of the day they'll be any more keen to lose him than we were to lose Torres at the height of his injury problems... as frustrating as it is to see your best players sitting on the sidelines, you still want to keep them.

And his injury record, which had been poor for a couple of years didn't stop us holding out for £50m, nor keep Chelsea from paying it.
 
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gasband

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If there is anything we learn from the Aquilani transfer is that, do not think we are getting a good deal because the club is selling an injured player at a 'discounted' price.
 



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