Last dozen or so league games.... The run in, so to speak.

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Kopstar

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#61
That was my point earlier - we could easily make a mess of the run in, but several of our rivals face some real challenges. More of the top teams, and in some cases in rather concentrated bursts. Arsenal's next month is intense, Spurs face a very challenging April even if they are out of the CL, and ManU. Chelsea is digging a hole for themselves at a time when they need to build up steam - from the end of Feb to the first week of April they could be washed out of the CL while facing Spurs and both Manc sides.
Congratulations on having 50,000 likes, only just behind ismf on 58,000 and Nikola approaching 100,000!

Time to get rid of this system?!
 

Arminius

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#65
I am happy to contribute...... Do you get anything out of the 50K you got so far? Can redeem for something? I am just wondering, since it's been a bit of a big issue to discuss. Mine may be half yours, but would like to redeem for something.
I think they might have been Bitcoin likes or something, and I will be down to about 8000 by dinner time.
 

Mascot88

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#66
Congratulations on having 50,000 likes, only just behind ismf on 58,000 and Nikola approaching 100,000!

Time to get rid of this system?!
God knows what's happened there - but maybe it's best to have the conversation in the forums feedback thread?
 
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#68
The last dozen or so league games - the RUN IN, so to speak.
I'm mystified, what's this about a cock swinging contest? Who's playing for them? :-) :J
 
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#70
I have just gone through the remaining fixtures for our CL rivals. I gave each PL team a rating based on their league position * points achieved. I then multiplied this figure by 2 to indicate a home match. The statistical methodology is crude, but it gives each side a consistent rating. I then banged it in a spreadsheet and this is what data came out.

LAST 11 GAMES RUN IN (the higher the figure - the harder the fixtures).
  1. TOTTENHAM 20
  2. ARSENAL 21
  3. LIVERPOOL 22
  4. MAN UTD 29
  5. CHELSEA 30
So Tottenham have the easiest run in and Chelsea have the hardest (50% tougher again as Tottenham's). I will work out what this means in terms of points and finishing position later (using the same raw data), but what it means is that Liverpool and Tottenham should finish in the top four along with Man Utd if current form is maintained (yeah - I know that is unlikely).
 

lillypad_33

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#71
I have just gone through the remaining fixtures for our CL rivals. I gave each PL team a rating based on their league position * points achieved. I then multiplied this figure by 2 to indicate a home match. The statistical methodology is crude, but it gives each side a consistent rating. I then banged it in a spreadsheet and this is what data came out.

LAST 11 GAMES RUN IN (the higher the figure - the harder the fixtures).
  1. TOTTENHAM 20
  2. ARSENAL 21
  3. LIVERPOOL 22
  4. MAN UTD 29
  5. CHELSEA 30
So Tottenham have the easiest run in and Chelsea have the hardest (50% tougher again as Tottenham's). I will work out what this means in terms of points and finishing position later (using the same raw data), but what it means is that Liverpool and Tottenham should finish in the top four along with Man Utd if current form is maintained (yeah - I know that is unlikely).
I like your analysis. Multiplying by 2 for away games seems a good idea.
In the end it's quite difficult to statistically analyze these thing because injuries, and other factors can throw in a wildcard.
Champions League may also hinder us. Luckily, the first leg of Porto isn't on the front end of another EPL game.
If we're lucky, Chelsea's next run of games will kill them....
Fa Cup, Barcelona, Man United, Man City....

4 ties in a row would be perfect!!! Especially with a FA cup replay!

Of course, they have us at home to end the season....

I hope Tottenham and Liverpool make the top 4, and Chelsea shit the bed.
As long as we go top 4 I don't care though...
 
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#72
I have just gone through the remaining fixtures for our CL rivals. I gave each PL team a rating based on their league position * points achieved. I then multiplied this figure by 2 to indicate a home match. The statistical methodology is crude, but it gives each side a consistent rating. I then banged it in a spreadsheet and this is what data came out.

LAST 11 GAMES RUN IN (the higher the figure - the harder the fixtures).
  1. TOTTENHAM 20
  2. ARSENAL 21
  3. LIVERPOOL 22
  4. MAN UTD 29
  5. CHELSEA 30
So Tottenham have the easiest run in and Chelsea have the hardest (50% tougher again as Tottenham's). I will work out what this means in terms of points and finishing position later (using the same raw data), but what it means is that Liverpool and Tottenham should finish in the top four along with Man Utd if current form is maintained (yeah - I know that is unlikely).
So here is what came out of this data. I split the teams into five equal-ish groups - depending on their rating. I gave three points against the teams with the lowest rating and zero points for the highest. The middle group got allocated a point.

HOW MANY POINTS EXPECTED IN LAST 11 GAME - RUN IN
  • TOTTENHAM 25
  • ARSENAL 25
  • LIVERPOOL 25
  • MAN UTD 17
  • CHELSEA 17
PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS AND POINTS 2017/2018
  1. CITY
  2. LIVERPOOL 79
  3. TOTTENHAM 77
  4. MAN UTD 73
  5. CHELSEA 70
  6. ARSENAL 70
Just a bit of fun - but Liverpool and Tottenham should comfortably make top four and Chelsea only finish ahead of Arsenal on goal difference (if present form for all teams is maintained).

Man Utd and Chelsea still have four "top six" clashes left to play including the champions elect at the Etihad. Tough games.....
Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool have only two each.
 

lillypad_33

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#73
So here is what came out of this data. I split the teams into five equal-ish groups - depending on their rating. I gave three points against the teams with the lowest rating and zero points for the highest. The middle group got allocated a point.

HOW MANY POINTS EXPECTED IN LAST 11 GAME - RUN IN
  • TOTTENHAM 25
  • ARSENAL 25
  • LIVERPOOL 25
  • MAN UTD 17
  • CHELSEA 17
PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS AND POINTS 2017/2018
  1. CITY
  2. LIVERPOOL 79
  3. TOTTENHAM 77
  4. MAN UTD 73
  5. CHELSEA 70
  6. ARSENAL 70
Just a bit of fun - but Liverpool and Tottenham should comfortably make top four and Chelsea only finish ahead of Arsenal on goal difference (if present form for all teams is maintained).

Man Utd and Chelsea still have four "top six" clashes left to play including the champions elect at the Etihad. Tough games.....
Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool have only two each.
Man I Hope your projections are right!!
Unfortunately, I think some of those Man City games might be after they've already clinched the title. They could potentially rest an entire team in an effort to win Champions League and FA cup...
 

Samwise the Brave

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#74
So here is what came out of this data. I split the teams into five equal-ish groups - depending on their rating. I gave three points against the teams with the lowest rating and zero points for the highest. The middle group got allocated a point.

HOW MANY POINTS EXPECTED IN LAST 11 GAME - RUN IN
  • TOTTENHAM 25
  • ARSENAL 25
  • LIVERPOOL 25
  • MAN UTD 17
  • CHELSEA 17
PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS AND POINTS 2017/2018
  1. CITY
  2. LIVERPOOL 79
  3. TOTTENHAM 77
  4. MAN UTD 73
  5. CHELSEA 70
  6. ARSENAL 70
Just a bit of fun - but Liverpool and Tottenham should comfortably make top four and Chelsea only finish ahead of Arsenal on goal difference (if present form for all teams is maintained).

Man Utd and Chelsea still have four "top six" clashes left to play including the champions elect at the Etihad. Tough games.....
Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool have only two each.
Nice rough analysis of our chances. It goes some way to explaining why FiveThirtyEight has consistently given us hugely positive odds for finishing in the top four.

If you’ve not heard of them, they’re an excellent statistical analysis website on a range of issues (mostly sports and politics).

Link
 

Jimmyscase

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#75
So here is what came out of this data. I split the teams into five equal-ish groups - depending on their rating. I gave three points against the teams with the lowest rating and zero points for the highest. The middle group got allocated a point.

HOW MANY POINTS EXPECTED IN LAST 11 GAME - RUN IN
  • TOTTENHAM 25
  • ARSENAL 25
  • LIVERPOOL 25
  • MAN UTD 17
  • CHELSEA 17
PROJECTED FINISHING POSITIONS AND POINTS 2017/2018
  1. CITY
  2. LIVERPOOL 79
  3. TOTTENHAM 77
  4. MAN UTD 73
  5. CHELSEA 70
  6. ARSENAL 70
Just a bit of fun - but Liverpool and Tottenham should comfortably make top four and Chelsea only finish ahead of Arsenal on goal difference (if present form for all teams is maintained).

Man Utd and Chelsea still have four "top six" clashes left to play including the champions elect at the Etihad. Tough games.....
Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool have only two each.
Nice work! What was really interesting about the Chelsea win yesterday was that by tracking the effects of that result on the top 4 chances of the top six, I noticed Arsenal's 10% didn't change (very little potential for change from other teams results) Chelsea's own chance only went up 2% (which is shockingly little for a 44% starting position) Spurs and LFC's chances only went down 1% to 80 and 94% respectively, but the problem for United is that their chances dropped 2% to 70%. It seems that United's chances are more affected by results beyond their control than their rivals, and Chelsea have the hardest run of games.
 

NYRhockey

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#76
I used to not dislike Spurs, but after their shit diving and Poch's comments that "deceiving the ref is part of what you should be doing" (paraphrasing) firmly puts me in the camp that i want those assholes out of the top 4, with Chelsea taking their spot.
 
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#77
Man I Hope your projections are right!!
Unfortunately, I think some of those Man City games might be after they've already clinched the title. They could potentially rest an entire team in an effort to win Champions League and FA cup...
Ah but City cannot win the league until their game against Man Utd on 7 April at the earliest (and this is if they win every game up to that date). They then play Tottenham a week later. I would reckon it is 99.99% certain that City will NOT be champions before that game against Spurs on 14 April. So I think we are OK on this one. City will be up for ALL their games against our rivals.
 

Irishanfield

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#78
I used to not dislike Spurs, but after their shit diving and Poch's comments that "deceiving the ref is part of what you should be doing" (paraphrasing) firmly puts me in the camp that i want those assholes out of the top 4, with Chelsea taking their spot.
Plus its more important for us to see spurs fair not only because their fans are a horrible shower of pricks but if they miss out on champ lge then less income and with having to pay for the new stadium they'll struggle to attract the better players plus their star players and hopefully the manager will leave and they can sink back to where they were 10 years ago. Abramovich has the money to pump into the club if he so wishes so them missing out won't be as damaging

As far as the stats and percentages of qualifying for top 4 is seriously pointless and kinda irritating. Just take one game at a time and let's see where we are come march because theses predictions are just full of shit.I'm sure they saw us beating Swansea, Everton west brom
 

Samwise the Brave

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#79
Plus its more important for us to see spurs fair not only because their fans are a horrible shower of pricks but if they miss out on champ lge then less income and with having to pay for the new stadium they'll struggle to attract the better players plus their star players and hopefully the manager will leave and they can sink back to where they were 10 years ago. Abramovich has the money to pump into the club if he so wishes so them missing out won't be as damaging

As far as the stats and percentages of qualifying for top 4 is seriously pointless and kinda irritating. Just take one game at a time and let's see where we are come march because theses predictions are just full of shit.I'm sure they saw us beating Swansea, Everton west brom
I don’t think the statistics are pointless, just that they’re backing up what many of us have stated qualitatively - the other rivals for a top 4 spot have generally more difficult fixtures.

Naturally, nothing’s guaranteed. I don’t think anyone’s saying that. However, it’s human nature to look ahead, and it doesn’t do any harm for a supporter to do so. If the team/Klopp were too focused on the future, that’d be a problem, but they seem pretty grounded in the here and now.

Some people like numbers and some don’t, no need to piss in our chips just cause it’s not your style :tongue: you can always skip the statistical posts.

Edit: or skip this thread, as that’s pretty much the point of it! :celebrating:
 

Jimmyscase

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#80
Plus its more important for us to see spurs fair not only because their fans are a horrible shower of pricks but if they miss out on champ lge then less income and with having to pay for the new stadium they'll struggle to attract the better players plus their star players and hopefully the manager will leave and they can sink back to where they were 10 years ago. Abramovich has the money to pump into the club if he so wishes so them missing out won't be as damaging

As far as the stats and percentages of qualifying for top 4 is seriously pointless and kinda irritating. Just take one game at a time and let's see where we are come march because theses predictions are just full of shit.I'm sure they saw us beating Swansea, Everton west brom
Next game is West Ham. I see us slipping up there and dropping points, so that after we'll need approx 6 wins in 10 games to get 76-78 points. I don't think we should have any problems doing that though. If we beat the Hammers, things don't change much. We're two pts ahead of last year and in our run in then, we made life harder for ourselves than it should have been:
W-D-D-D-W-W-L-W-D-W-W
 
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Irishanfield

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#81
Next game is West Ham. I see us slipping up there and dropping points, so that after we'll need approx 6 wins in 10 games to get 76-78 points. I don't think we should have any problems doing that though. If we beat the Hammers, things don't change much. We're two pts ahead of last year and in our run in then, we made life harder for ourselves than it should have been:
W-D-D-D-W-W-L-W-D-W-W
That's all fair enough but I just can't take all this "computer says no" shit
We have a 59.6786677% chance of making top 4. Making judgements like that when their are 4 pts between 4 teams with 11 to play is useless.
 

Irishanfield

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#82
I don’t think the statistics are pointless, just that they’re backing up what many of us have stated qualitatively - the other rivals for a top 4 spot have generally more difficult fixtures.

Naturally, nothing’s guaranteed. I don’t think anyone’s saying that. However, it’s human nature to look ahead, and it doesn’t do any harm for a supporter to do so. If the team/Klopp were too focused on the future, that’d be a problem, but they seem pretty grounded in the here and now.

Some people like numbers and some don’t, no need to piss in our chips just cause it’s not your style :tongue: you can always skip the statistical posts.

Edit: or skip this thread, as that’s pretty much the point of it! :celebrating:
Is the idea just to help you part with your money

Are you American BTW ? They Just seem to but faith in their stats a bit more
 

Jimmyscase

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#83
That's all fair enough but I just can't take all this "computer says no" shit
We have a 59.6786677% chance of making top 4. Making judgements like that when their are 4 pts between 4 teams with 11 to play is useless.
The closer we get to the finishing line the less I'll be interested in probability stats too. There's no point looking at them for the first two thirds of a season or the last five games. Right now they're just a tool to have up your sleeve in banter on a footie forum:-)
 

Samwise the Brave

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#84
Is the idea just to help you part with your money

Are you American BTW ? They Just seem to but faith in their stats a bit more
First of all, what does my nationality have to do with anything?

Secondly, yes I am an American living in Asia. So? I get the feeling you think Americans like stats because of our current owners and the much-publicized moneyball idea. It’s not really the case, just as any generalized comment about a nation’s people would be wrong. Actually, I saw a lot more statistics on this site from non-Americans than I ever saw while in the states talking about, or watching, football. (Baseball is a different story...that sport is very statistics-driven and numbers become very important, as they are in cricket).

Thirdly, as said above, if you don’t like predicting, thinking or reading about our chances overall in the last few games, why are you in this thread?

Fourthly, I don’t bet, I thought I was pretty clear as to the usage of statistics in this case. Quantitative analysis can often be used to back up qualitative observations. In this case, we should be optimistic about our run-in. Of course anything could happen, but it’s nice to compare fixtures and see we have a good chance of finishing fourth. (And no, it’s not 59%...it’s 95%. Yes perhaps insignificant in itself as a predictive measure but indicative of a very good chance)
 

Jimmyscase

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#85
Run in last year
MD 28-38
W-D-D-D-W-W-L-W-D-W-W Started on 52 PTS got 24 from 33 possible.

In that list we had a really important proxy duel game against Soton at home which we drew week 34. Luckily, only one of the Manc teams could benefit in their Soton game IIRC.
I'm optimistic that before the most significant match this year (Chelsea away MD 37), we won't be in fifth needing to win to give us a shout of fourth against Brighton at home.
 



Irishanfield

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#87
First of all, what does my nationality have to do with anything?

Secondly, yes I am an American living in Asia. So? I get the feeling you think Americans like stats because of our current owners and the much-publicized moneyball idea. It’s not really the case, just as any generalized comment about a nation’s people would be wrong. Actually, I saw a lot more statistics on this site from non-Americans than I ever saw while in the states talking about, or watching, football. (Baseball is a different story...that sport is very statistics-driven and numbers become very important, as they are in cricket).

Thirdly, as said above, if you don’t like predicting, thinking or reading about our chances overall in the last few games, why are you in this thread?

Fourthly, I don’t bet, I thought I was pretty clear as to the usage of statistics in this case. Quantitative analysis can often be used to back up qualitative observations. In this case, we should be optimistic about our run-in. Of course anything could happen, but it’s nice to compare fixtures and see we have a good chance of finishing fourth. (And no, it’s not 59%...it’s 95%. Yes perhaps insignificant in itself as a predictive measure but indicative of a very good chance)
Sorry mate didn't mean to offend you as such but just ment more due to how overly they are used in your own sports like baseball and American football that you are bombarded with them a lot more of than we tend to be .

Tbh we are in 3rd with 11 games to play and 3 out of 4 teams will qualify (2nd -4th) so it really doesn't need statistical analysis to figure that out.
Oh BTW the 59% was just a random figure I made up as an example
 

Zinedine Biscan

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#88
At least we can say it's in our own hands and our run-in, while not a cake-walk, isn't overly intimidating either.

FYI I read that from this season, the team finishing 4th won't have to play a qualification play-off round to get into the group stage of next season's CL. A minor point really, but still nice to know.
 

Samwise the Brave

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#89
Sorry mate didn't mean to offend you as such but just ment more due to how overly they are used in your own sports like baseball and American football that you are bombarded with them a lot more of than we tend to be .

Tbh we are in 3rd with 11 games to play and 3 out of 4 teams will qualify (2nd -4th) so it really doesn't need statistical analysis to figure that out.
Oh BTW the 59% was just a random figure I made up as an example
Right, fair enough. As I said it’s true that some of our other sports are heavily statistics-based - that happens when a sport is more stop-start.

What else would the American football commentators do for 40 seconds out of 45? :yawn: (Each play is 5-10 seconds, then a 40-second play clock before the next one MUST start)

I guess I just prefer statistics over the commentators saying things like “he just doesn’t have it, for me.” What a load of tosh - if they said his passes are really inaccurate or he misses a lot of tackles or even back that up with data, at least it doesn’t sound like you’re on your 100th game of FIFA/Pro Evo hearing the same thing again and again.

On the other hand, numbers can get pretty meaningless too. I guess it’s just a preference thing.

Still, I think there’s space for it in this thread and I thought Dodge City put a lot of decent work into his analysis, then you were moaning about it ;-) I got a bit carried away.

BTW, I figured the 59% was a random number but my point was that a 59% chance of getting in does sound about right given our position. When an analytical website then gives us a whopping 95% chance of getting in the top four, that seems odd and makes me at least want to know why (especially as I know and respect the website running the analysis - were one of the few that actually gave Trump about a 40-45% chance of winning the election unlike other “experts”).
 

Irishanfield

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#90
Right, fair enough. As I said it’s true that some of our other sports are heavily statistics-based - that happens when a sport is more stop-start.

What else would the American football commentators do for 40 seconds out of 45? :yawn: (Each play is 5-10 seconds, then a 40-second play clock before the next one MUST start)

I guess I just prefer statistics over the commentators saying things like “he just doesn’t have it, for me.” What a load of tosh - if they said his passes are really inaccurate or he misses a lot of tackles or even back that up with data, at least it doesn’t sound like you’re on your 100th game of FIFA/Pro Evo hearing the same thing again and again.

On the other hand, numbers can get pretty meaningless too. I guess it’s just a preference thing.

Still, I think there’s space for it in this thread and I thought Dodge City put a lot of decent work into his analysis, then you were moaning about it ;-) I got a bit carried away.

BTW, I figured the 59% was a random number but my point was that a 59% chance of getting in does sound about right given our position. When an analytical website then gives us a whopping 95% chance of getting in the top four, that seems odd and makes me at least want to know why (especially as I know and respect the website running the analysis - were one of the few that actually gave Trump about a 40-45% chance of winning the election unlike other “experts”).
Am yeah I know and I probably get a bit butt hurt when I feel that people are trying to Americanise the sport but yeah taken with a bit of tongue in cheek then stats can be a bit of fun I guess
 
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