Moses Simon (LW/RW) Gent
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Yeah, I understand that. I'm not suggesting we sign any old shite just because they're cheap. I'm working off the assumption that if the club has identified this lad as a serious target then he must have something about him. Let's not forget, nobody here has even seen this lad play.
As regards to the use of stats, it could be that this lad has impressive stats that haven't quite transpired into the more noticeable ones (goals and assists). E.g. his expected assists stat could be high, but his actual ones aren't because his teammates can't finish. I wouldn't know, I don't have access to that data. Once again, if he's a genuine target, I'm going to assume the club has done its homework and they think there's something there to work with.
As regards to the use of stats, it could be that this lad has impressive stats that haven't quite transpired into the more noticeable ones (goals and assists). E.g. his expected assists stat could be high, but his actual ones aren't because his teammates can't finish. I wouldn't know, I don't have access to that data. Once again, if he's a genuine target, I'm going to assume the club has done its homework and they think there's something there to work with.
Well a lot of people didn't think Oxlade-Chamberlain was a fit but the stats suggested he was and they were right. Even people that were supposedly stats-savvy made fools of themselves (and worse) claiming Ox-Chambo lacked the intellect to play CM, had a rugby mentality, etc. All ridiculous. I turned him up in a filter in 2015 after Klopp got hired, same with Salah and Mane. It wasn't hard. Naby Keita and Van Dijk were very predictable Klopp targets as well if you look at what he's valued in the past, and if you do the same with Firmino (which he never had a player like at Dortmund), Fekir is one of the few comparables -- 3 that more or less meet the top 4 criteria in the top 5 leagues. They weren't the only ones on the list, but they were on the last (and it wasn't like 100 names long either, more like 10 or less for most roles). Several other that weren't signed went to other big clubs. So yeah, I'm sticking with stats doing a pretty good job.
I'm not saying and haven't said that the club doesn't scout in other ways. It's also important to account for age because some attributes develop more slowly (and less slowly) than others. But usually a player that's a better passer at age 20 is a better passer at 23 also, even those their absolute skills may improve a great deal for both. Which is a lot of why I don't think Simon is a prospect -- not only is he producing less, he's producing less than guys younger than him.
I'm not saying and haven't said that the club doesn't scout in other ways. It's also important to account for age because some attributes develop more slowly (and less slowly) than others. But usually a player that's a better passer at age 20 is a better passer at 23 also, even those their absolute skills may improve a great deal for both. Which is a lot of why I don't think Simon is a prospect -- not only is he producing less, he's producing less than guys younger than him.
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you know whats funny, if i transport back in time a few years, id still hit like on your post becuase it would seem like a wickedly sharp burn on the processes this club goes through.
its refreshing to see the amount of optomism in general in this thread for what is, (calling a spade a spade here) a pretty underwhelming transfer link.
its a great indication of how far Klopp has actually come.
Goals are generally more reliable and repeatable for players in weaker leagues, even for non-strikers. So is Europa/CL data, which for Simon is...well...not good. Scored...well...never, with 2 assists in 800+ minutes (11 starts, 2 subs). So that's like 30% of a season's worth of games, with no goals.
Also have found it helpful to look at performance against the top...well, however many makes sense, teams (it could be half the league or more, or it could be like 2-3 as in Portugal). It gives a better idea of how the player might fare in a better league -- essentially you're creating one with a subset. Simon scored 2 goals against the top half of the table last year, and 1 against the top 6 (really 5 since Gent was in the top 6).
"If he's a genuine target" is a big if. Seems the media has moved on to Shaqiri now...I'm liking how this is trending. Maybe eventually we'll keep moving on and moving on and end up buying Pulisic and Rodrygo.
Also have found it helpful to look at performance against the top...well, however many makes sense, teams (it could be half the league or more, or it could be like 2-3 as in Portugal). It gives a better idea of how the player might fare in a better league -- essentially you're creating one with a subset. Simon scored 2 goals against the top half of the table last year, and 1 against the top 6 (really 5 since Gent was in the top 6).
"If he's a genuine target" is a big if. Seems the media has moved on to Shaqiri now...I'm liking how this is trending. Maybe eventually we'll keep moving on and moving on and end up buying Pulisic and Rodrygo.
Goals are generally more reliable and repeatable for players in weaker leagues, even for non-strikers.
"If he's a genuine target" is a big if. Seems the media has moved on to Shaqiri now...I'm liking how this is trending. Maybe eventually we'll keep moving on and moving on and end up buying Pulisic and Rodrygo.
"If he's a genuine target" is a big if. Seems the media has moved on to Shaqiri now...I'm liking how this is trending. Maybe eventually we'll keep moving on and moving on and end up buying Pulisic and Rodrygo.
There are plenty of examples of footballers who weren't great at the age Moses is now. Ian Wright, Di Natale, Drogba...all turned out to be great goalscorers in the end. More recent examples would be Vardy and Mahrez. Mahrez, incidentally, had similar goal scoring stats for Le Havre as Moses does for Gent. Not saying that means an awful lot in regards to how Moses Simon will do, just pointing out there are plenty of exceptions to these arbitrary rules you've imposed, they're hardly the watertight standards you think they are.
Well I was thinking this was actually going civilly...until...
Bringing up Wright without citing context is not an honest argument. Yes, I'm sure a guy that didn't really commit to football until after he went to jail is totally normal and not an obvious outlier at all. But since you mention it, he scored more league goals in his first year as a professional than Simon has in any season in his career, including in something called the Slovak Super Liga. If Pulisic is still scoring 3-4 goals a season at age 22, then it would be fair to say that's not good, but that's very unlikely to be the case.
Mahrez scored 7 goals in his first 51 games at Leicester. If he had been at a bigger club he wouldn't have had the chance to struggle and still play. Liverpool fans would have had no chill for 2 seasons of some unknown from Ligue 2 not scoring. So that's not really a good example either.
If you make decisions based on the 10% chance of something happening, you're going to end up wasting an awful lot of money as a club.
Bringing up Wright without citing context is not an honest argument. Yes, I'm sure a guy that didn't really commit to football until after he went to jail is totally normal and not an obvious outlier at all. But since you mention it, he scored more league goals in his first year as a professional than Simon has in any season in his career, including in something called the Slovak Super Liga. If Pulisic is still scoring 3-4 goals a season at age 22, then it would be fair to say that's not good, but that's very unlikely to be the case.
Mahrez scored 7 goals in his first 51 games at Leicester. If he had been at a bigger club he wouldn't have had the chance to struggle and still play. Liverpool fans would have had no chill for 2 seasons of some unknown from Ligue 2 not scoring. So that's not really a good example either.
If you make decisions based on the 10% chance of something happening, you're going to end up wasting an awful lot of money as a club.
There are plenty of examples of late bloomers out there, I didn't realise I would offend you with those ones I posted off the top of my head, my apologies.
I'm not arguing for Simon being a better player than Pulisic, just recognising the fact he might cost 6-7 times less, and given the other business we have done/are doing, it might not be feasible to spend so much on another wide player in this window.
The 10% figure is something you've just plucked out of the air but since you've brought up the idea of wasting money, the initial outlay would be very small by today's standards, any loss on this transfer would be insignificant.
This might even be a Chelsea type move if it transpires, as Shaqiri could be. Get them on the cheap with the intention of selling them on for a profit in the near future to fund better players in a later window. Not something I can see Klopp making a habit out of, but a one off? Dunno, maybe.
What I will say is that if Alisson and Oblak are prohibitively expensive and we end up cheaping out on a keeper, then this type of signing would be have me grumbling a bit more than I otherwise would have done. If there are extra funds available then I believe there's little reason to be taking to be taking a chance on such a low profile player.
I'm not arguing for Simon being a better player than Pulisic, just recognising the fact he might cost 6-7 times less, and given the other business we have done/are doing, it might not be feasible to spend so much on another wide player in this window.
The 10% figure is something you've just plucked out of the air but since you've brought up the idea of wasting money, the initial outlay would be very small by today's standards, any loss on this transfer would be insignificant.
This might even be a Chelsea type move if it transpires, as Shaqiri could be. Get them on the cheap with the intention of selling them on for a profit in the near future to fund better players in a later window. Not something I can see Klopp making a habit out of, but a one off? Dunno, maybe.
What I will say is that if Alisson and Oblak are prohibitively expensive and we end up cheaping out on a keeper, then this type of signing would be have me grumbling a bit more than I otherwise would have done. If there are extra funds available then I believe there's little reason to be taking to be taking a chance on such a low profile player.
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So who does your filter say we should be signing? I'd love some actual names to go along with your claims. You also say firmino and fekir are two of three players that meet the criteria of being comparable to firmino - who's the third?
I understand your point - and agree with them on most points (minus writing players off because age +spreadsheet without using your eyeballs)-but also think your talking out of your ass quite a bit to try and land your arguments. Slightly disrespectful and i apologize, but not sure how else to say it.
I understand your point - and agree with them on most points (minus writing players off because age +spreadsheet without using your eyeballs)-but also think your talking out of your ass quite a bit to try and land your arguments. Slightly disrespectful and i apologize, but not sure how else to say it.
I would have suggested not saying it at all...I feel like if I said something like that I would have been jumped on straight away. Insulting someone and then pre-apologizing for it is quite ridiculous.
Anyway, on to other things.
I suppose Firmino is comparable to Firmino haha. But that wasn't one of the 3.
The other two -- not saying they're playing this role currently, but Firmino didn't either before he joined Liverpool -- are Thorgan Hazard and Federico Chiesa. I find both interesting for different reasons, and particularly would not have expected Chiesa to show up. Fekir is definitely the strongest "pass" of the 3, though Ligue 1 is a weaker league as well.
The filter is essentially Age < 27 -> Key Passes -> ShotsinBox -> Tackles -> Dribbles -> Passes. Chiesa drops out at the passes but he's also younger than the other two. Basically the idea is "what makes Firmino, well, "Firmino"?" And then who else does those things. He's so versatile that it's not too surprising that the results cover players with different positions/roles.
I did it on the commute home because I actually hadn't done one on Firmino, or anyone formally since that hack in 2015 when Klopp was hired. I had anticipated that Klopp would pursue players like the ones he signed at Dortmund, so I had looked at Lewandowski and Aubameyang instead. So the combination of Firmino's rarity and the difficulty finding another Lewandowski might have resulted in building a formation around Firmino instead.
Anyway, on to other things.
I suppose Firmino is comparable to Firmino haha. But that wasn't one of the 3.
The other two -- not saying they're playing this role currently, but Firmino didn't either before he joined Liverpool -- are Thorgan Hazard and Federico Chiesa. I find both interesting for different reasons, and particularly would not have expected Chiesa to show up. Fekir is definitely the strongest "pass" of the 3, though Ligue 1 is a weaker league as well.
The filter is essentially Age < 27 -> Key Passes -> ShotsinBox -> Tackles -> Dribbles -> Passes. Chiesa drops out at the passes but he's also younger than the other two. Basically the idea is "what makes Firmino, well, "Firmino"?" And then who else does those things. He's so versatile that it's not too surprising that the results cover players with different positions/roles.
I did it on the commute home because I actually hadn't done one on Firmino, or anyone formally since that hack in 2015 when Klopp was hired. I had anticipated that Klopp would pursue players like the ones he signed at Dortmund, so I had looked at Lewandowski and Aubameyang instead. So the combination of Firmino's rarity and the difficulty finding another Lewandowski might have resulted in building a formation around Firmino instead.
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I'm well up for a cheap, pacy winger with a bit of potential who can score goals, who'll be happy to learn Klopp's style but sit on the bench most of the time. Most of the players we've been linked with for those wide positions don't necessarily seem to have a lot of pace, but it's so crucial to how we play. Because it's so fundamental to our method, I think it'll be great to have some real depth there.
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Fair enough. I guess fundamentally we'll part ways of thinking here, I'm not sure you can boil Firmino down to Key passes, shots in the box, tackles, dribbles, passes, look at numbers, and have any idea about how he plays without watching the game and seeing him play.
Again a useful tool-but not one I'd use to write an unknown player off that Liverpool have spent time and energy scouting.
Again a useful tool-but not one I'd use to write an unknown player off that Liverpool have spent time and energy scouting.
oh ffs...I can see I wasted my time then. You have truly learned nothing.
Do you think I've never seen Firmino play? Jesus H. How do you think I got the idea of what makes Firmino the player he is? Though actually you could do that with data as well...I think maybe that's the problem here is that most of you just have a fundamental misunderstanding or outright ignorance about the capabilities. I used like 1% of them in the above post.
There's no accounting for people that don't know what they don't know, but think they know.
Speaking of which, we don't actually know that Liverpool has spent any time scouting Simon, do we? Has there been a quote from anyone at the club? You're taking the word of people that were completely caught out on Fabinho and just assuming they're right? I'm sure when this doesn't happen they'll be like "well we only said he was under consideration" or whatever. They've lost all credibility.
Do you think I've never seen Firmino play? Jesus H. How do you think I got the idea of what makes Firmino the player he is? Though actually you could do that with data as well...I think maybe that's the problem here is that most of you just have a fundamental misunderstanding or outright ignorance about the capabilities. I used like 1% of them in the above post.
There's no accounting for people that don't know what they don't know, but think they know.
Speaking of which, we don't actually know that Liverpool has spent any time scouting Simon, do we? Has there been a quote from anyone at the club? You're taking the word of people that were completely caught out on Fabinho and just assuming they're right? I'm sure when this doesn't happen they'll be like "well we only said he was under consideration" or whatever. They've lost all credibility.
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? Why would either of us leave the board? That's slightly ridiculous. I'm not sure I want Simon to sign. That's never been what I am trying to say. My point is, knowing exactly how Firmino plays, because we watch him every week, and then trying to translate his play into a set of numbers that correlate with certain stats doesn't tell you jack shit about what Firmino looks like on the field...some of the numbers correlate with what you see, but it doesn't really tell the whole story, does it?
Exactly the way the stats you are using to dismiss Simon don't tell you jack shit about what Simon really looks like on the field without watching him play.
The link is slightly underwhelming. But without having seen him play, it's hard to say with certainty that Wilson is better, or that he's not good enough, or that he doesn't warrant scouting. That's my entire point. I'll leave it at that.
Exactly the way the stats you are using to dismiss Simon don't tell you jack shit about what Simon really looks like on the field without watching him play.
The link is slightly underwhelming. But without having seen him play, it's hard to say with certainty that Wilson is better, or that he's not good enough, or that he doesn't warrant scouting. That's my entire point. I'll leave it at that.
According to Comolli Firmino was identified due to his similarities to Lewandowski. He was considered the player the most similar to Ledwandoski in the budesliga statistically (I presume he was scouted traditionally and that some of the similitudes where recognition before). The point being that the 'stats' helped 'clarify' the situation. This indicates he was identified and bought due to being similar to another player.
I agree however that 'stats' paint far from a complete picture in fact they can only be approximate comparisons. You surely need more than that.
When it comes to these analytics I just don't see where they are getting sufficient or reliable enough stats to analyse let alone run them through an algorithm and get something reasonable at the end of it. I think it just boils down to picking out the same players as everyone is talking about anyway.
I've seen some real silly stats out there for LFC players for example Coutinho's shots per goal (way off the mark).
I agree however that 'stats' paint far from a complete picture in fact they can only be approximate comparisons. You surely need more than that.
When it comes to these analytics I just don't see where they are getting sufficient or reliable enough stats to analyse let alone run them through an algorithm and get something reasonable at the end of it. I think it just boils down to picking out the same players as everyone is talking about anyway.
I've seen some real silly stats out there for LFC players for example Coutinho's shots per goal (way off the mark).
I guess you could say it doesn't, but it tells a lot of it, and thus far in the Klopp era, it's told enough.
This "you can't know a player without seeing him" is a complete misunderstanding of why you use data. I'm done trying to explain it. Either you believe it's possible to know something without being there, or you don't. If you don't, I don't know how you managed to make through history classes in school.
This "you can't know a player without seeing him" is a complete misunderstanding of why you use data. I'm done trying to explain it. Either you believe it's possible to know something without being there, or you don't. If you don't, I don't know how you managed to make through history classes in school.
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Comolli also has a record of claiming credit for things. He left Liverpool in April 2012, during Bobby's first full season at Hoffenheim (at age 20). We didn't sign him until over three years later!
I also have my doubts about the rest of what he says. Firmino was played mainly as an attacking-mid and left-winger, and even when he arrived at Liverpool was played either on the wing or as a no10. None of that, to me, screams 'player who was targeted for his similarity to Lewandowski'. Honestly feel like Comolli is drawing on hindsight here and claiming credit for something he likely played no part in.
I also have my doubts about the rest of what he says. Firmino was played mainly as an attacking-mid and left-winger, and even when he arrived at Liverpool was played either on the wing or as a no10. None of that, to me, screams 'player who was targeted for his similarity to Lewandowski'. Honestly feel like Comolli is drawing on hindsight here and claiming credit for something he likely played no part in.
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