Fixtures
Oct. 20th - Huddersfield (a)
Oct. 24th - Red Star (h)
Oct. 27th - Cardiff (h)
Nov. 3rd - Arsenal (a)
Nov. 6th - Red Star (a)
Nov. 11th - Fulham (h)
This run looks 'easier' on paper than the last 7.
I’d take draws away to Arsenal and at Belgrad if we win the other 4 tbh. We have a week off before the Arsenal game while they play in the Carabao Cup in midweek.
Huddersfield is the game where we should get back to winning ways. Especially the first three games offer the chance for our Front3 to get back on the scoresheet and the chance for our new signings Keita and Fabinho to get used to our style.
After four matches without a win, we need to win all three PL matches bar Arsenal, come away from their place with a draw at least, and beat Red Star twice.
Our PL start of 20 points from 24 means that, whilst it's still early days, we've significantly upped our chances of a third top four finish in a row, which is the minimum acceptable target this season. Last season we got 75 points, 71 would have been enough for 4th, but this season I think it'll take a higher total to finish 4th or higher.
Really we should be looking for 80 points minimum, which means we need 60 points from the 90 points remaining.
A title challenge will require 90 points+, meaning we need 70 more points from the remaining 90. That might mean on paper that we can drop points in a number of matches, but that can easily happen during intense periods, so there really is little margin for error when the run of matches is more favourable.
Regarding the CL, the defeat at Napoli was a huge setback, as it now means we cannot qualify for the last 16 until the 5th or 6th match.
If we drop any points against RSB we could be in serious trouble. We may have taken PSG at home, but the quality they have means that any result at their place would be a bonus, whilst Napoli are more than capable of coming to Anfield and avoiding defeat, if a draw is all they need.
The results between PSG and Napoli will obviously determine much, but the only way to ensure we keep some control of our own destiny, by which I mean not needing wins in both of the last two matches, is to beat Red Star twice.
I have to say I have revised my expectations for this season after the last run of matches.
Our defence has clearly stepped up a level, but it cannot be expected to save us time and time again. In the end the relentless pressure tells, as we saw in the late defeat to Napoli and the near late defeat to City.
But our midfield struggled in recent matches, and whilst I expect it to improve as rotation restores energy levels, and Fabinho/Keita settle more, I fear it won't be enough soon enough for us to actually win anything.
I also fear our attack will struggle this season, due to fatigue, the lack of like for like rotation options, and a lack of midfield creativity.
Year on year our defence is markedly better, whilst our forward squad is slightly better due to Sturridge's resurgence and Shaqiri being better as back up than we had a year ago.
But the improvement in the forward squad isn't enough to offset the fall off in level of the first choices, whilst our midfield isn't the same level as this time last year.
Can was a genuine 4th central midfielder this time last year, and in attacking midfield we had Oxlade and Coutinho, with Grujic as further cover and Lallana (though injured).
This year Fabinho is not yet contributing at Can's level, Keita is nowhere near what Coutinho was, Shaqiri won't be a same level replacement for Oxlade, and Lallana isn't going to be able to offer what we need either.
IMO we did stop short of doing what was necessary in the summer and we are feeling Coutinho's loss more now than we did after he went. People argue that he wasn't missed last season, but the point is that multiple quality players means that when one dips, as Salah has, another picks up the slack.
I think we'll improve our PL points total this season, even if we do so via a different, more defensively minded type of performance. The Champions League is 50/50 in terms of whether we'll get to the latter stages and the FA Cup a complete lottery.
But I think once again we'll find we don't, in the final reckoning, have quite enough to actually win a big prize.
Thankfully we won't see the backwards steps we've seen the season after selling big names previously, this time I think it'll merely mean we're still a little short.
