Season Comparison: 2017/18 v 2018/2019

Fowler's Left Peg

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#1
Okay Guys,

In the absense of nobody else doing this I thought I would resurect it. It is a thread I always enjoyed reading to see how we are doing in the season compared to like for like fixtures from the previous season. It helps show where we have improved and underperformed.

I have used the same rules as the previous person in relation to the promoted teams, ie the team that came up throught the play off final is represented by the team that finished bottom of the Premiership last season.

I have tried to keep the format as simple as possible so it is easy to understand, however if there is anything anyone would like adding within reason I can do it.

Likewise if you spot any errors let me know, I have tried to be accurate and I think I have everythign but Im not perfect :-)

PS - If the original author of this thread intended to do this and wants to I am happy to step aside and let you do it, just noticed it dropped off the radar last season.

 

Fowler's Left Peg

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#2
First thing that jumps out is against the first 10 opponents this season in corresponding fixtures we managed 22 points out of a possible 30 and those fixtures included:

Leicester AWAY
Spurs AWAY
Chelsea AWAY
Man City HOME

I would say that was a good return based on the fixtures with Cardiff at home as the main blemish.

This highlights how important it is going to be for us to get a fast start to the season if we aim to improve on last year.
 

Red_Jedi

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#3
Interesting that many of the games we drew last season are clumped together this season.
 

lfc.eddie

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#4
I would say that was a good return based on the fixtures with Cardiff at home as the main blemish.
I am worried whenever I think of us going up against Warnock. He's by far the worst manager when it comes to playing dirty, he will stop at nothing to get his players to hurt the opponent and that's something I worry about with our front 3, especially Mane and Salah.
 

Quicksand

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#7
Anyone seen this piece saying that we would have been second (12 more points, ManU 6 less) if decisions were made correctly?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/45087444
Interesting.
All of the "conspiracy theorists" that were derided last season will be hailed as seers and realists this season.
Doubt that we would, but at least we now have empirical evidence to support us.
 

Incognito

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#9
Spurs, Chelsea, City and United away, lost all 4 last season and drew against Arsenal away. Also against Spurs and United, we had couple of draws at home. Hope to see an improvement there. That's 18 possible points, with an added advantage of taking points of top 4 rivals.

One aspect to that I think was absence of VVD, which didn't enable us to calm the fck down after conceding. To add to the panic, the midfield didn't help much either, and Coutinho for instance was often lost once the chips turned around in game. We can really hope to see an improvement there, hopefully the spine from Alisson - VVD - Fabinho/ Hendo and Keita should help reduce pace of the game and control it when needed.

We are again bound to have 15-20 mins of stretch maybe twice in a game where we might completely blow teams out. The pace in doing that might improve as well considering the passing and quick accurate distribution from Alisson. We have enough fire power to kill off teams who park the bus now with Shaqiri, Keita and Sturridge in the mix. Just need to see off games where we take the foot off the gas and we can expect can be significant increase in our points tally.

3 more days for it to begin, hope this will be a season we'll watch over and over again. YNWA!
 

YeGra

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#10
Certainly cast doubt over the old adage of 'These decisions even themselves out over the course of a season'

Lets hope we get more of a rub of the green this season eh
Yeah I never really bought into that luck evening out thing...38 games isn't a big sample size when you think about it. Anyone know the card game crib? It's a long winded game where you win against by scoring 121 points first. Luck definitely doesn't even out over that game or even several games - same in football.

This is why I'm sort of an advocate of VAR if they get it right. They can't piss about and take ages with decisions due to the nature of the game but if it runs smoother operationally, then it makes sense to me.
 

Noo Noo

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#11
Well due to the current meltdown that's happening at United I decided to peak at Red cafe and this topic was on there and to be honest it wasn't surprising to see them try and tear the study to shreds along with the not unexpected "funded by LFC BS"

I think for me however, the study shows the need for even more improvements in refereeing. The mistakes can be pretty costly for some clubs, especially those battling relegation.
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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#12
It's interesting to see but the "justice/luck table" or whatever you want to call it is pretty useless really. Think I've pretty much seen maybe 4/5 over the last 7/8 years something like that anyway. Every year we are the "unluckiest" and United are the "luckiest" and nothing is ever done or changes. There's (at the very very least) an unconscious bias in the football authority if not an out an out fear and prejudice. Having the likes of David Gill high up in the authority whilst still having ties/roles with one of the teams involved would do that. I wouldn't say it's a conspiracy but it is still a negative effect that never comes close to balancing out. But there's nothing that can or ever will be done about it. It's the situation we are in and we've just got to get on with it.
 

Mascot88

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#13
To be fair that revised table undermines itself by including stuff like deflected shots - yes that’s a bit lucky but it’s hardly an injustice.

There was another ‘accurate’ league table from a few years back that pretty much showed the same thing.

But the argument then is the same as it is now - goals change games. If something different happens in a game then the whole rest of the match is entirely different.

Take the Liverpool United match. Yes we should have had a penalty. If we converted it (no guarantee of that) then United are no longer trying to get a plucky nil nil away from home. They have to come out looking for an equaliser, which they might get - it’s not like they haven’t got the attacking power when Jose lets them play.
 

Commando

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#14
Well due to the current meltdown that's happening at United I decided to peak at Red cafe and this topic was on there and to be honest it wasn't surprising to see them try and tear the study to shreds along with the not unexpected "funded by LFC BS"

I think for me however, the study shows the need for even more improvements in refereeing. The mistakes can be pretty costly for some clubs, especially those battling relegation.
Whenever the subject of refs' decisions having negative impact comes up, I always think about Lee Mason.
I think it was the 10/11season away to Fulham third to last game of the season IIRC. We won 5-2, but when we were 3-0 up Brede Hangellande dragged down a Liverpool player when he was clean through on goal. Mason feeling sorry for Fulham and with it being so one sided gave him only a yellow. Later on Hangellande went in two footed on a Liverpool playe. Mason gave him a talking to. As I say we won 5-2 so no big deal to us that he wasn't given his marching orders. The next game Fulham played was against Birmingham. Fulham won 2-0, Hangellande got them both. Birmingham were relegated by one point at the end of the season.
I know some people will say that Birmingham didn't do enough throughout the season to stay up, but If Hangellande does not score those two goals? Who knows what might have been Birmingham's future? We're now coming up to the eighth season that Birmingham have missed out on Premier League money. Partly because Lee Mason made mistakes.
 

Noo Noo

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#15
It's interesting to see but the "justice/luck table" or whatever you want to call it is pretty useless really. Think I've pretty much seen maybe 4/5 over the last 7/8 years something like that anyway. Every year we are the "unluckiest" and United are the "luckiest" and nothing is ever done or changes. There's (at the very very least) an unconscious bias in the football authority if not an out an out fear and prejudice. Having the likes of David Gill high up in the authority whilst still having ties/roles with one of the teams involved would do that. I wouldn't say it's a conspiracy but it is still a negative effect that never comes close to balancing out. But there's nothing that can or ever will be done about it. It's the situation we are in and we've just got to get on with it.
Its just wrong isn't it? That conflict of interest simply shouldn't exist or be allowed to exist.

I was also appalled when hearing Allan Sugar discuss the formation of the Premier League.
 

Commando

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#16
To be fair that revised table undermines itself by including stuff like deflected shots - yes that’s a bit lucky but it’s hardly an injustice.

There was another ‘accurate’ league table from a few years back that pretty much showed the same thing.

But the argument then is the same as it is now - goals change games. If something different happens in a game then the whole rest of the match is entirely different.

Take the Liverpool United match. Yes we should have had a penalty. If we converted it (no guarantee of that) then United are no longer trying to get a plucky nil nil away from home. They have to come out looking for an equaliser, which they might get - it’s not like they haven’t got the attacking power when Jose lets them play.
Not just goals. An incorrectly given free kick, corner or even a throw in can change a game. It's like the 'butterfly effect'. The slightest change can multiply further down the line.
 

Noo Noo

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#17
Whenever the subject of refs' decisions having negative impact comes up, I always think about Lee Mason.
I think it was the 10/11season away to Fulham third to last game of the season IIRC. We won 5-2, but when we were 3-0 up Brede Hangellande dragged down a Liverpool player when he was clean through on goal. Mason feeling sorry for Fulham and with it being so one sided gave him only a yellow. Later on Hangellande went in two footed on a Liverpool playe. Mason gave him a talking to. As I say we won 5-2 so no big deal to us that he wasn't given his marching orders. The next game Fulham played was against Birmingham. Fulham won 2-0, Hangellande got them both. Birmingham were relegated by one point at the end of the season.
I know some people will say that Birmingham didn't do enough throughout the season to stay up, but If Hangellande does not score those two goals? Who knows what might have been Birmingham's future? We're now coming up to the eighth season that Birmingham have missed out on Premier League money. Partly because Lee Mason made mistakes.
Yeah but I think you can only really say that refereeing mistakes impact that game and that game along. Even then its a bit of a stretch because things change when a major decision happens. Tactics change etc. and from that point onward the game is different. But when you're a club fighting relegation every point is hard earned.

So the study is a bit of a folly to be honest . Some will grab it and try to create a storm with it but in reality I think the main point is how poor refereeing is still allowed to impact games. That is in this era and at this level.

You could even argue that the whole thing surrounding simulation and diving still hasn't been resolved. To some degree it wont but referee's need to be smarter. To me they seem to know very little about the subtleties (another word for dirty tricks) of the game
 

YeGra

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#19
To be fair that revised table undermines itself by including stuff like deflected shots - yes that’s a bit lucky but it’s hardly an injustice.

There was another ‘accurate’ league table from a few years back that pretty much showed the same thing.

But the argument then is the same as it is now - goals change games. If something different happens in a game then the whole rest of the match is entirely different.

Take the Liverpool United match. Yes we should have had a penalty. If we converted it (no guarantee of that) then United are no longer trying to get a plucky nil nil away from home. They have to come out looking for an equaliser, which they might get - it’s not like they haven’t got the attacking power when Jose lets them play.
I agree, the deflected goals shouldn't be on there. There's certainly an element of you make your own luck as well with those because the better team in a match tends to have the most shots on goal making it more likely for deflections to happen.

We certainly can't apply too much weight to this table, but like you said goals change games. And in the same way, the goal we might scored against United might have caused them to come out and get an equaliser, we might have been able to hold out against them. This in turn would have increased our confidence and momentum for potentially the entire season. We will have no idea the true impact to these mistakes but going on principle, something should be done to try and avoid them.
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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#20
Spurs, Chelsea, City and United away, lost all 4 last season and drew against Arsenal away. Also against Spurs and United, we had couple of draws at home. Hope to see an improvement there. That's 18 possible points, with an added advantage of taking points of top 4 rivals.

One aspect to that I think was absence of VVD, which didn't enable us to calm the fck down after conceding. To add to the panic, the midfield didn't help much either, and Coutinho for instance was often lost once the chips turned around in game. We can really hope to see an improvement there, hopefully the spine from Alisson - VVD - Fabinho/ Hendo and Keita should help reduce pace of the game and control it when needed.

We are again bound to have 15-20 mins of stretch maybe twice in a game where we might completely blow teams out. The pace in doing that might improve as well considering the passing and quick accurate distribution from Alisson. We have enough fire power to kill off teams who park the bus now with Shaqiri, Keita and Sturridge in the mix. Just need to see off games where we take the foot off the gas and we can expect can be significant increase in our points tally.

3 more days for it to begin, hope this will be a season we'll watch over and over again. YNWA!

Our record against the top 6 was appalling when you break it down, 12 points from a possible 36. Room for improvement here.

 

Incognito

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#22
But it was really good the season before... and also many of the games that we drew, we should have won - and maybe would have won if VAR was used....
That has in recent memory always been our strength, no matter how bad we were, we used to turn it on against the big guns. The problem was always the teams who park the bus and sit back and the December January period when we struggled because of lack of depth. Think we resolved that to a better extend last season, but missed on our usual results against the big guns. Hope we get the best of last two seasons this time around.
 

mattyhurst

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#23
Whenever the subject of refs' decisions having negative impact comes up, I always think about Lee Mason.
I think it was the 10/11season away to Fulham third to last game of the season IIRC. We won 5-2, but when we were 3-0 up Brede Hangellande dragged down a Liverpool player when he was clean through on goal. Mason feeling sorry for Fulham and with it being so one sided gave him only a yellow. Later on Hangellande went in two footed on a Liverpool playe. Mason gave him a talking to. As I say we won 5-2 so no big deal to us that he wasn't given his marching orders. The next game Fulham played was against Birmingham. Fulham won 2-0, Hangellande got them both. Birmingham were relegated by one point at the end of the season.
I know some people will say that Birmingham didn't do enough throughout the season to stay up, but If Hangellande does not score those two goals? Who knows what might have been Birmingham's future? We're now coming up to the eighth season that Birmingham have missed out on Premier League money. Partly because Lee Mason made mistakes.
Reminds me of the Bolton vs Stoke game that sent Bolton down, some really poor decisions basically cheated Bolton out of that, it was the day City won the title with the last kick, now see what mess Bolton have been in since.

All down to Chris Foy and his terrible assistants.
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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#24
Game 1 done and dusted and a great start.

I said we needed a fast start to match the first 10 results from corresponding fixtures last season and boy we got it. Didn't expect us to better last season Home win against West Ham to be honest but we scored the same and kept that all important clean sheet.

 
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#25
The 2 chunks of yellow - one of 5 matches and one of 4 matches - is probably where we will see our points vary between last and current season. Those 9 draws amount to 18 points missed and I hope we get atleast 10 out of those 18 this time.
 



LFCFFC

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#26
Would love us to also take a few extra points off the other top 4 rivals away from home.

Could potentially be pivotal come next May.
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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#27
Agree with both of you, there are 3 key things we need to do in order to improve and challenge.

1 - The games we Won last year need to be repeated, or at least get very close.

2 - Turn at least half of those Draws from last season into WIns.

3 - Improve our record against the top 6 from last season, 2 points in the away games against top six is not good enough to challenge, as you say we need to pick up more away from home against these teams. 10 points out of 18 at home is better and we were unbeaten, but maybe a few more points here are achievable.

Put all that together and you never know, it could be.................
 

Fowler's Left Peg

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#28
Updated after game 2.

Must admit I was worried about this one, and even though we looked off the pace a bit, front 3 struggling for form, wing backs struggled to get into the game, we controlled it for the majority, VVD was immense, promising signs from Alisson and Keita.

Great to see we have matched results so far, but more importantly last season we conceeded silly goals, it appears our defence is now improved so much we are keeping clean sheets and we can see this has already had a positive impact on our GD compared to the same results last year. I'm looking forward to seeing an improvment in the points +/- but equally it will be interesting to see how the GD +/- figure fluctuates.

Bring on Brighton

 
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YeGra

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#29
I'm interested to see how much we break away from last season as in a couple weeks time we hit that period of only winning 3 games out of 10. You'd hope for a 5 point difference at least looking at the fixtures we dropped points in. We should then be looking at another 5 points around that second poor patch of results around the 30 game mark.

It is very easy to see how he can make us hit the mid 80s mark this season. Wouldn't be enough for the title you'd think but 2nd place should be sealed with a point total like that.
 

Jimmyscase

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#30
For these first four equivalent fixtures it's only about building up GD plusses; in particular GA minuses. I can see Brighton going home without scoring again next weekend and I can't see us letting 2 in away at Leicester again, ever(?);-)