The Unreliable Rumours Thread

Richard88

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Too much peering through a business lens and not a footballing lens going on here. We're at the start of a potential dynasty that can see us win the next 2-3 titles with added UCLs and some lesser cups, and people don't want to take in a genuine world class play maker who would immediately improve our team? Baffling. Our midfield isn't as stacked as we think - Lallana's good as gone, Gini's contract situation, Millie getting older, Keita still hasn't strung a decent season together. I'm not even thinking about potential players like Curtis Jones at this point. His turn will come towards the next cycle/rebuild. This is where we should be bringing in the icing and cherry on top, not 20 year old potential talent who may be world class in 2022-23. Bring in the experienced players to consolidate our position. Players of Thiago's quality would be key for us winning everything in the next 2-3 seasons. Couldn't care less if we can't resell him if we win another 3 major trophies in his time here.

That's a good point. The fact that we have a 19 year old CM in Curtis Jones breaking through probably affords us the luxury of signing a 29 year old playmaker rather than a 23 year old. Thiago could give us 2-3 quality seasons, and that buys some time for Jones to really come into his own.

I do wonder how keen Wijnaldum would be to sign an extension if we bring in Thiago though, as Wijnaldum would likely see a drop in appearances as he'd be the obvious player to make way for Thiago.
 

ILLOK

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Jamal Lewis doesn't compare to Andy Robertson of Hull, that's the problem. It's the same age old problem of comparing players and managers; Ferguson was given time ergo so should every manager be given time etc. Not every player from a lower level club will be Andy Robertson and if that were the case then maybe we shouldn't have bombed out Konchesky so quickly. Or Charlie Adam.
Yep. I hadn't really seen much of Robbo at Hull but those who had tended to all agree he had a very good delivery from the left.

I've seen Lewis a few times. He's a good athlete, gets up and down the pitch well but I don't see too much in the way of attacking quality. If that is the standard of player we're looking at as a back up then I don't see why we wouldn't just give Williams the minutes instead. Sure, being right footed isn't ideal, but he does have genuine quality with the ball at his feet.
 

Sweeting

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I've watched a decent amount of Lewis this season, the major problem I have with him is that he seems to get forward as part of his obligation as a wing back, rather than being something he actively enjoys doing. He looks more like Gomez playing at LB than Robertson.

He is quite slow to get forward, doesn't have that instinct and when he gets to the edge of the area he invariably turns around and plays it back to a midfielder, rather than drive to the byline (I would rather teach a player to be more conservative than teach them to be more aggressive).
 

Iluvatar

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The thing about Thiago which niggles at me is.. We’ve not been in this position for awhile
I've watched a decent amount of Lewis this season, the major problem I have with him is that he seems to get forward as part of his obligation as a wing back, rather than being something he actively enjoys doing. He looks more like Gomez playing at LB than Robertson.

He is quite slow to get forward, doesn't have that instinct and when he gets to the edge of the area he invariably turns around and plays it back to a midfielder, rather than drive to the byline (I would rather teach a player to be more conservative than teach them to be more aggressive).
You've basically described Milner as left back, which is what I think we need to move away from as a back up.
 

Kopstar

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Not necessarily. Signing Werner would entail an upfront payment of €50m, whereas a Thiago deal can be paid in instalments over several seasons. If it's €30m + €5m bonus with Thiago on a 4 year contract then it could be €7.5m instalments each summer from 2020/21 to 2023/24, which is obviously less impactful on the balance sheet in the short term while finances are likely to be tightest.
Well, my point was mostly about spending £30m+ to sign a 29 yr old in a position which is in less urgent need of strengthening (than, say, wide forward, attacking midfield, left back or centre back) would be playing fairly loose with our money if we really were struggling to find £50m. It was slightly tongue in cheek because I have no doubt that if we (Klopp) wanted Werner enough, we would have bought him.

However, on your point about the finances of the deal, the Werner transfer fee would have been paid up front but from an accounting perspective, the cost would have been spread over the period of his contract. Paying the actual fee in instalments has nothing to do with it. The same accounting approach would apply for Alcantara (or any player where the fee is paid in instalments). In addition, as I've said previously, a transfer fee paid in instalments is generally paid within two (maybe three) years with instalments being paid every six months, it is not stretched out over the period of the player's contract (that is the accounting aspect (amortisation)).

It's worth also considering that a £30m investment in a 29 yr old probably represents a more risky proposition than a £50m investment on a 24 year old. In 3 years time (if Alcantara signed a 4 year deal this would be the last year he would have any value at all), Alcantara would be 32 and would have very little residual resale value, even with a year left on his deal. Werner, however, even if he didn't develop any further, would be 27 and about to enter his prime so the chances are his value would have increased from the amount paid for him. Pay £30m for Alcantara plus his wages, the benefit to the club won't be felt beyond the impact his performances have for us on the pitch. Realistically, we're not getting that back. Pay £50m for Werner, not only does the club benefit from the impact of his performances on the pitch but we're also likely to be able to recover at least that amount paid should he leave in 3-4 years time.

All rather by the by given that we didn't sign Werner and Alcantara remains only a hypothetical at this stage.
 

NYRhockey

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All this talk of residual value is puzzling. The team was not afraid to let Emre Can go on a free even though he could have been sold prior to his contract expiring for a lot more than zero. Lallana was not sold and is going to walk on a free. Sturridge was not sold and walked on a free. If we don't end up getting Thiago it will not be because of "residual value", and if we do end up getting him i don't see the team having an issue getting a few fantastic years out of him and letting him walk on a free.
 

Kopstar

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All this talk of residual value is puzzling. The team was not afraid to let Emre Can go on a free even though he could have been sold prior to his contract expiring for a lot more than zero. Lallana was not sold and is going to walk on a free. Sturridge was not sold and walked on a free. If we don't end up getting Thiago it will not be because of "residual value", and if we do end up getting him i don't see the team having an issue getting a few fantastic years out of him and letting him walk on a free.
With Can, he wanted a release clause inserted into his contract. The Club weren't afraid to risk losing him for free if it meant that they didn't set a precedent that would hurt them even more in the long term. Sturridge and Lallana were not sold because a) there were no buyers and/or b) they were more useful to keep around the squad than having a few million in the bank.

The point about residual value was to properly compare the "cost" of a transfer for Thiago at £30m+ and one for Werner at £50m. In that context it's extremely relevant. You cite the club allowing three players to run their contracts down but for some reason do not reference selling Coutinho for £142m. Selling players at peak value has been a fundamental part of the club's transfer strategy.
 

CymruRed

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The point about residual value was to properly compare the "cost" of a transfer for Thiago at £30m+ and one for Werner at £50m. In that context it's extremely relevant. You cite the club allowing three players to run their contracts down but for some reason do not reference selling Coutinho for £142m. Selling players at peak value has been a fundamental part of the club's transfer strategy.
Yeah but in a perfect world,where we carried on making the types of money we've made over the past few years,clubs not losing money to coronavirus and the transfer market staying the same,our transfer strategy of selling players at peak value to fund better players and strengthen our squad back then was bang on,the problem now though is all that seems to have changed.

Luckily for us,Klopp has completed this first 11 and the bulk of our squad,with good youth prospects coming through,to win us our first title and cups.I'm not saying we'll not sell a top player in the future (like a Couthinho type of sale) to re-build,but in general,i get the feeling we'll play the transfer market differently for the next season or 2,not because we want to but because we'll be forced to.

As someone has mentioned earlier,we may be looking at players for the here and now (Thiago or a similar aged/quality type of player) and not worry about re-sale values,averaged priced,quality experienced players who can come in and do a job and keep us winning trophies for the time being,which then gives us time to work out the transfer market,save funds,give youth players some game time,plus lets the players we really want,run down contracts by a year and get a seasons more experience under their belts,as they don't look like being moved on right now,as their parent clubs seem to want last years astronomical transfer fee's,in a market thats not the same anymore,i can't see anyone putting down £100mill on a player for a season or 2.

I could be totally wrong and all this be BS,but thats how i see it going atm.
 
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Neukolln

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This was posted in the Twitter thread, and I can’t find this Tweet anywhere on Joyce’s feed. Not trying to be the thread Polizei, I was genuinely trying to find the source because I don’t understand the phrasing.

Liverpool are unlikely to target Bayern Munich midfielder Thiago Alcantara with Klopp playing a straight bat to the subject. [
@_pauljoyce
]
 

Kopstar

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Yeah but in a perfect world,where we carried on making the types of money we've made over the past few years,clubs not losing money to coronavirus and the transfer market staying the same,our transfer strategy of selling players at peak value to fund better players and strengthen our squad back then was bang on,the problem now though is all that seems to have changed.

Luckily for us,Klopp has completed this first 11 and the bulk of our squad,with good youth prospects coming through,to win us our first title and cups.I'm not saying we'll not sell a top player in the future (like a Couthinho type of sale) to re-build,but in general,i get the feeling we'll play the transfer market differently for the next season or 2,not because we want to but because we'll be forced to.

As someone has mentioned earlier,we may be looking at players for the here and now (Thiago or a similar aged/quality type of player) and not worry about re-sale values,averaged priced,quality experienced players who can come in and do a job and keep us winning trophies for the time being,which then gives us time to work out the transfer market,save funds,give youth players some game time,plus lets the players we really want,run down contracts by a year and get a seasons more experience under their belts,as they don't look like being moved on right now,as their parent clubs seem to want last years astronomical transfer fee's,in a market thats not the same anymore,i can't see anyone putting down £100mill on a player for a season or 2.

I could be totally wrong and all this be BS,but thats how i see it going atm.
Yep, all valid points. It doesn't change the fact that the same player has more value as a 27 yr old than they do as a 32 yr old. Coronavirus hasn't altered that. I can't think of a single player who's bucked that trend.

This was posted in the Twitter thread, and I can’t find this Tweet anywhere on Joyce’s feed. Not trying to be the thread Polizei, I was genuinely trying to find the source because I don’t understand the phrasing.
It's in his Times article, apparently. From the post-match presser so there's likely to be a video of it somewhere.

Here we are, it's the last question at 7.55

 
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CymruRed

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This was posted in the Twitter thread, and I can’t find this Tweet anywhere on Joyce’s feed. Not trying to be the thread Polizei, I was genuinely trying to find the source because I don’t understand the phrasing.

Klopp answered the question exactly the same way as he answers almost every other type of transfer question,when asked about other teams players,he just says they are good players and thats it,he just keeps the answer short and sweet.

As for the phrase,i guess it's like when someone throws a ball at you,you just hit it quickly "straight bat",that Thiago question was fired at him (like a ball) and he quickly answered it,like a quick hit of a ball "straight batted" the question.If that makes sense?? lol
 

Neukolln

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Klopp answered the question exactly the same way as he answers almost every other type of transfer question,when asked about other teams players,he just says they are good players and thats it,he just keeps the answer short and sweet.

As for the phrase,i guess it's like when someone throws a ball at you,you just hit it quickly "straight bat",that Thiago question was fired at him (like a ball) and he quickly answered it,like a quick hit of a ball "straight batted" the question.If that makes sense?? lol
Completely agreed! I just watched the video, exactly like you said, it was actually the exact same answer JK has always given when asked about transfer targets. I didn’t understand the phrasing, I took it as Joyce saying JK killed it, but the way you explained it makes much more sense!
 

CymruRed

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Yep, all valid points. It doesn't change the fact that the same player has more value as a 27 yr old than they do as a 32 yr old. Coronavirus hasn't altered that. I can't think of a single player who's bucked that trend.
You've kinda lost me on this part,i know a 27 year olds value would be more than a 32 year olds,but i'd say coronavirus won't alter the price difference between them but it will alter their actual transfer fee and i can see clubs bucking that spending trend.

i'm talking about adding top quality,experienced,aged players (29yr+) with a few years left in them,that can come straight into the squad and do a job,we wouldn't have to train them up to give them experience and wouldn't cost us a huge amount of transfer funds,players who can give us enough time to scout the next transfer markets over the next few years (Thiago for example),so we can then bring in the top quality younger players we wanted in the first place,at a later date for the right fee's.

If we are winning things then Thiago has done his job and saved/made us a lot of money in the meantime,even if he walks for free after 4 years,shit we could still sell him after 2 years (31 years old) for some kind of fee,if the price was right and needs must.

I'm just saying the way the market is,we'd be fools to just go in and pay the usual market rate for a top player right now,when it's not known what the true market value of a player really is.

If the price is right,there are still players in our squad we can sell on,to carry on with our normal transfer strategy,just at this moment in time,i can't see us getting top dollar for them.I also see it when it comes to buying players,for arguements sake,i can't see Dortmund selling Sancho for less than £100mill or Leverkusen sell Havertz for less than £90mill right now in the coming window, looking at the bigger picture,with clubs losing money,those players could be worth £60mill and £50mill but do you think those 2 clubs will sell for the lesser amounts in this summer window?? maybe next summers window when they both have a year left on their contracts and the market has settled down and righted itself.
 
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redbj

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Yep, all valid points. It doesn't change the fact that the same player has more value as a 27 yr old than they do as a 32 yr old. Coronavirus hasn't altered that. I can't think of a single player who's bucked that trend.


Unfortunately, for you, there’s this thing called James Milner......

Unfair you have to deal with that variable, being that’s he’s James Milner and all....
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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Well, my point was mostly about spending £30m+ to sign a 29 yr old in a position which is in less urgent need of strengthening (than, say, wide forward, attacking midfield, left back or centre back) would be playing fairly loose with our money if we really were struggling to find £50m. It was slightly tongue in cheek because I have no doubt that if we (Klopp) wanted Werner enough, we would have bought him.

However, on your point about the finances of the deal, the Werner transfer fee would have been paid up front but from an accounting perspective, the cost would have been spread over the period of his contract. Paying the actual fee in instalments has nothing to do with it. The same accounting approach would apply for Alcantara (or any player where the fee is paid in instalments). In addition, as I've said previously, a transfer fee paid in instalments is generally paid within two (maybe three) years with instalments being paid every six months, it is not stretched out over the period of the player's contract (that is the accounting aspect (amortisation)).

It's worth also considering that a £30m investment in a 29 yr old probably represents a more risky proposition than a £50m investment on a 24 year old. In 3 years time (if Alcantara signed a 4 year deal this would be the last year he would have any value at all), Alcantara would be 32 and would have very little residual resale value, even with a year left on his deal. Werner, however, even if he didn't develop any further, would be 27 and about to enter his prime so the chances are his value would have increased from the amount paid for him. Pay £30m for Alcantara plus his wages, the benefit to the club won't be felt beyond the impact his performances have for us on the pitch. Realistically, we're not getting that back. Pay £50m for Werner, not only does the club benefit from the impact of his performances on the pitch but we're also likely to be able to recover at least that amount paid should he leave in 3-4 years time.

All rather by the by given that we didn't sign Werner and Alcantara remains only a hypothetical at this stage.
The challenges Coronavirus is putting on the club are more to do with the cash flow than the profit and loss accounts that you mention. We were so solvent on paper the profit and loss accounts might not even show as a loss this season unless we fork out some transfer fees for new players. But cash flow has all but stopped coming in over the last few months with a lot still going out (wages, bills, ticket refunds etc). Add €55 million outgoing in cash within the 12 months of maximum disruption is bad, even potentially catastrophic. The equivalent strain on our finances with a normally structured deal (which can include add ons for targets plus payments spread out up to 5 years) could be something like an Mbappe style deal, or Edwards being really shit at negotiating (which we know he isn't) and a Havertz or Sancho style deal with the majority of the fee paid in advance. If say a Havertz or a Sancho was being negotiated for now at say 90 million I've no doubt Edwards would have at least 20 of that in add ons (earliest payments towards this would be next summer) and the remaining 70 in 5 equal payments of £14 million per annum. On the cash flow that's 14 million versus 55 million during our most precipitous year.

......but for some reason do not reference selling Coutinho for £142m. Selling players at peak value has been a fundamental part of the club's transfer strategy.
If selling players at peak value is a fundamental part of our transfer strategy we are doing a shit job of it! One player forced sale we never could have preplanned for (the Neymar deal was out of the blue for everyone and without it there was no way we fetched over £100 million for Coutinho). We took full advantage of it yes. But I can't agree it was planned for. We were already spending quite big that year and if VvD had have been completed that summer for around £60 million we would have spent around 140 million, most of it planned for before the Coutinho sale became a possibility, especially at those figures! Even with the Coutinho deal we only made a profit of about 20 million that season. We spent over 120 million net the following summer. We kind of spent the Coutinho money twice, once the season he was sold in and once the following season. I think we were due a big year or two spending regardless of that sale we probably just massaged our plans for the following year a bit giving Klopp even more freedom to make improvements quicker than originally planned.
 

redfanman

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The challenges Coronavirus is putting on the club are more to do with the cash flow than the profit and loss accounts that you mention. We were so solvent on paper the profit and loss accounts might not even show as a loss this season unless we fork out some transfer fees for new players. But cash flow has all but stopped coming in over the last few months with a lot still going out (wages, bills, ticket refunds etc). Add €55 million outgoing in cash within the 12 months of maximum disruption is bad, even potentially catastrophic. The equivalent strain on our finances with a normally structured deal (which can include add ons for targets plus payments spread out up to 5 years) could be something like an Mbappe style deal, or Edwards being really shit at negotiating (which we know he isn't) and a Havertz or Sancho style deal with the majority of the fee paid in advance. If say a Havertz or a Sancho was being negotiated for now at say 90 million I've no doubt Edwards would have at least 20 of that in add ons (earliest payments towards this would be next summer) and the remaining 70 in 5 equal payments of £14 million per annum. On the cash flow that's 14 million versus 55 million during our most precipitous year.



If selling players at peak value is a fundamental part of our transfer strategy we are doing a shit job of it! One player forced sale we never could have preplanned for (the Neymar deal was out of the blue for everyone and without it there was no way we fetched over £100 million for Coutinho). We took full advantage of it yes. But I can't agree it was planned for. We were already spending quite big that year and if VvD had have been completed that summer for around £60 million we would have spent around 140 million, most of it planned for before the Coutinho sale became a possibility, especially at those figures! Even with the Coutinho deal we only made a profit of about 20 million that season. We spent over 120 million net the following summer. We kind of spent the Coutinho money twice, once the season he was sold in and once the following season. I think we were due a big year or two spending regardless of that sale we probably just massaged our plans for the following year a bit giving Klopp even more freedom to make improvements quicker than originally planned.
@kopstars point on selling strategy and price maximisation is correct. Allowing players to have release clauses effectively caps a players price so you can miss out from exploiting any sudden increase value/demand for them. If Can had a clause, so would Coutinho which wouldn't be as high as the fee we got for him. The fact he didn't allowed Edwards to negotiate harder.
 

Quicksand

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I think that delivering the title may have given a bit of scope to change the established transfer strategy for acquisition of the right player. The value of upgrade could be measured in improvement to the current squad rather than sell on value in four years time. Spending £50m on Werner to break into the front 3 may not make as much immediate sense as spending £30m on a player who will be required to break down the increased parked busses we will face as champions.

I doubt very much that we are locked into a singular strategy, and the success of the past two seasons just might lead to quality upgrade rather than resale value.
 

redfanman

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You've kinda lost me on this part,i know a 27 year olds value would be more than a 32 year olds,but i'd say coronavirus won't alter the price difference between them but it will alter their actual transfer fee and i can see clubs bucking that spending trend.

i'm talking about adding top quality,experienced,aged players (29yr+) with a few years left in them,that can come straight into the squad and do a job,we wouldn't have to train them up to give them experience and wouldn't cost us a huge amount of transfer funds,players who can give us enough time to scout the next transfer markets over the next few years (Thiago for example),so we can then bring in the top quality younger players we wanted in the first place,at a later date for the right fee's.

If we are winning things then Thiago has done his job and saved/made us a lot of money in the meantime,even if he walks for free after 4 years,shit we could still sell him after 2 years (31 years old) for some kind of fee,if the price was right and needs must.

I'm just saying the way the market is,we'd be fools to just go in and pay the usual market rate for a top player right now,when it's not known what the true market value of a player really is.

If the price is right,there are still players in our squad we can sell on,to carry on with our normal transfer strategy,just at this moment in time,i can't see us getting top dollar for them.I also see it when it comes to buying players,for arguements sake,i can't see Dortmund selling Sancho for less than £100mill or Leverkusen sell Havertz for less than £90mill right now in the coming window, looking at the bigger picture,with clubs losing money,those players could be worth £60mill and £50mill but do you think those 2 clubs will sell for the lesser amounts in this summer window?? maybe next summers window when they both have a year left on their contracts and the market has settled down and righted itself.
The confusion may come from not thinking through the risks - I.e Thiago coming in and not finding his feet because the league is too physical or keeps breaking down with injury. Or his legs go earlier than anticipated.

In such a case, a younger player will have his value somewhat protected (assuming we didn't overpay in the first place) because he has more of his career left.
 

redfanman

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I think that delivering the title may have given a bit of scope to change the established transfer strategy for acquisition of the right player. The value of upgrade could be measured in improvement to the current squad rather than sell on value in four years time. Spending £50m on Werner to break into the front 3 may not make as much immediate sense as spending £30m on a player who will be required to break down the increased parked busses we will face as champions.

I doubt very much that we are locked into a singular strategy, and the success of the past two seasons just might lead to quality upgrade rather than resale value.
I dont think the strategy will change, even if Thiago is bought. It's all based on relative factors.
 

Iluvatar

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Linked with Crewe LB Harry Pickering. Anyone watch them?
Where is the link? Is it because Pearce name checked him as the most statistically "same" as Robertson?


"Interestingly, one such option who may be a better fit already is 21-year-old Harry Pickering, who plays for Crewe, a team recently promoted to League One.

His pizza chart below shows a player very similar to Robertson in his ability to link play, retain the ball, defend and importantly attack by getting the ball forward and getting scoring chances for himself, all at high levels. His attacking attributes contributed to his three goals and five assists from left-back this season."
 

Zinedine Biscan

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Charts are all very well, but obviously Pickering's will be relative to the League 2 opponents he's up against. That said I know nothing about him, and if Edwards and co thought he'd be a good understudy for Robbo I trust their judgement.
 

Anfield rd Dreamer

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Where is the link? Is it because Pearce name checked him as the most statistically "same" as Robertson?


"Interestingly, one such option who may be a better fit already is 21-year-old Harry Pickering, who plays for Crewe, a team recently promoted to League One.

His pizza chart below shows a player very similar to Robertson in his ability to link play, retain the ball, defend and importantly attack by getting the ball forward and getting scoring chances for himself, all at high levels. His attacking attributes contributed to his three goals and five assists from left-back this season."
A lot dont seem to be pegging our fullbacks right including him it seems; "and importantly attack by getting the ball forward and getting scoring chances for himself, all at high levels. His attacking attributes contributed to his three goals"! That is completely missing what our playmaker fullbacks are actually doing. They may score occasional goals but mostly its about creating for others.